http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/stock-market-crash-predictions-for-2012.html
Then there’s Abigail Doolittle’s concern over falling GDP
growth that she cited in another crash prediction. That pattern has not changed since my
reporting of her comments almost a year ago to the day. GDP growth has not broken above the trend
line graphed by Contrary Investor that showed GDP growth peaked in 1980.
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/abigail-doolittle-gdp-growth-predicts.html
Since February 2012 we’ve had a weekly litany of crash
concerns from John Hussman and a highly publicized recession call from the
Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
They have never changed their call that the US is now in recession.
Currently, Europe is clearly in recession and I have
repeated blogs from others (most notably Mish Shedlock at Global Economic Trend
Analysis) who says simply “this is going to be a bleak year in Europe”.
With a Congress inclined to reduce spending and a
President who wants more tax increases and a European recession putting
pressure on US earnings, we must consider that this could be a SIGNIFICANT TOP
in the market and not just the beginning of a mild correction as predicted by
almost ALL the pundits on CNBC.
I have no further analysis (I’m not an economist) and I
don’t want to be a fear monger. (I worry
that I lean toward fear-mongering anyway, but I like to present the bad news
during a bull market and good news during a bear market. That way I am ready to
take action counter to the prevailing trend – Buy when others are selling; sell
when others are buying.)
Fear mongering aside, now is the time to be financially cautious.
With those
thoughts as a prelude, here’s the latest crash article:
THE NEXT STOCK
MARKET CRASH:
WHY MANY PROS
THINK IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN (Business Insider)“After coming within points of an all-time high, stocks have begun to stumble, and volatility appears to be returning to the markets…This has led some market pros to declare that an amazing four-year rally in stocks is over and that we're on the precipice of a new crash.” This story has a lot of graphs and some imbedded videos - well worth the time. Full story at …http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-2013-2?op=1#ixzz2MG1muKqD
MARKET RECAP
Friday, the
S&P 500 finished up about 0.2% to 1518 (rounded). VIX was down 1%, to 15.36.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I took a hedging, short-position Wednesday afternoon, 27 Feb 13, with a
very tight stop. I’ll bail on that if
the market moves up much. With longer
term funds, my investments remain the same.
Based on a BUY
signal 7 of 9-days, and more importantly, consecutive closes above the prior
high of 1466, I moved into the stock market at 1471 on the S&P 500 on 14
January. I am currently invested in a
range of near 50% invested in stocks, but I may not hang around too much longer
regardless of the NTSM numbers.
