“When it comes to government data, every silver lining has a cloud. Sure enough even today's NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) number, which on the surface was quite acceptable, had its share of thorny issues…”
“..in February according to the Household Survey, the number of full-time jobs
declined by 77K from 115,918 to 115,841. The offset: a jump in part-time
workers which rose from 27,467 to 27,569, or 102K… But the most surprising
development in February…was that the number of multiple job-holders rose by a
massive 340K, which just happens to be a record.” Full post at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-08/february-multiple-jobholders-rose-record-full-timers-dropped-part-timers-increased
My Cmt: Economists say that the Patient Protection and
Affordable Care Act (PPACA), commonly called Obamacare, is likely the cause of
the increase in part-time employment.
Part-timers are exempt from the law.
This is simply another case of unintended consequences.
FOR A LAUGH – DOW 36,000 (ZeroHedge)
“In a testament to just how euphoric stock markets are right now,
James K. Glassman the co-author of the fabled Dow 36,000 — a book published in 1999 that
claimed that stock prices could hit 36,000 by as soon as 2002 (and which quite
understandably is now available for just 1 cent per copy) — has written a new
column for Bloomberg View claiming that he might have been right all along...” Full post at ZeroHedge…http://www.zerohedge.com/
That’s as good a reason as any to be out of the stock
markets right now.
MARKET
RECAP
Friday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% to 1551 (rounded). VIX fell about 4%, to 12.59.
Friday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% to 1551 (rounded). VIX fell about 4%, to 12.59.
WHEN’S THE TOP?
The market
internals are still turning up.
Sentiment has been falling as more traders are betting the market will
fall. That’s the kind of action that may
induce the real Pros to remain long and keep this market heading higher. So a higher target, perhaps as much as 5%
above 1545 (or about 1625), may indeed prove to be a more accurate final
answer. (I had been calling for a top of 1545.)
I remain
reasonably confident that a correction will commence between today's close and around
1625. 1625 would be a stretch, but
stranger things have happened. Party
like it’s 2000!
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I covered my hedging, short-position Friday at S&P 1547, partly
because the market internals continue to look up. I think there will be another big day when
the S&P will move up 1-2%. At that
point I’ll reset a hedging-short.
The nature of a hedge is that I lost money on the short, but made money
in funds that remained invested. So I am
net even overall. Why do that? Well, it saves the tax gain (and accounting
headache) of selling long-term mutual funds and limits the downside. Now I have a tax loss instead of an
unrealized gain…oh joy.
With longer term funds, I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5
March, due to my risk tolerance rather than the NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. My reasoning may be
found at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
