The euro zone's trade surplus widened in May from a year earlier, driven mainly by falling imports rather than export growth, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday…The malaise in imports underscores the euro zone's struggle to revive domestic demand that is hampered by record unemployment, reluctance among consumers to spend and companies that are struggling to access credit and invest.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-eurozone-economy-idUSBRE96F0C120130716
With China in trouble too, it seems unlikely that the US
will be able to avoid economic problems.
The question is: When? For now, the US economy continues to stumble
along, according to most economists.
RECESSION IN THE NEXT 12-MONTHS INEVITABLE (Michael
Lombardi)
“…current consumer spending in the U.S. economy is
looking bleak, and it makes me skeptical about the GDP growth ahead. We've
already seen GDP in the first quarter revised lower due to consumer spending;
and it won't be a surprise to me if something similar happens in the second
quarter.” Opinion at Doug Short Advisor
Perspectives at…http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Michael-Lombardi-130715-Recession-Forecast.php
GASOLINE UP
The average price of regular gas is now $3.64, a rise of
15-cents over the prior week. Details at
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Update.php
US MARKET CORRECTION; EMERGING MARKET RALLY (Minyanville)
“…I
do believe that the US is now a crowded trade. Reflation hope still seems to be
unfounded, and optimism by the Fed may ultimately prove unwarranted. Mean
reversion is one of the most tried and true phenomena in the business of
investing, and it does seem plausible that strength in emerging markets could
coincide with a faltering US market to close the gap between the two.” Story at...http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/A-US-Stocks-Correction-and-an/7/16/2013/id/50830?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.37% to 1676 (rounded).
VIX was up about 5% to 14.42. Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.37% to 1676 (rounded).
The S&P 500 is slightly more than 10%
above its 200-dMA. That is an elevated
number that is in the range of short-term tops.
Breadth changed its trend today and is now
trending down. That’s a 10-dMA, so it
isn’t just a reaction to today’s down move in the Index. Ditto for the 10-dMA of New-“hi/new-lo” data
I track. We may see some reversal to the
down side.
NTSM
Tuesday, the overall NTSM analysis remained HOLD
(once again) at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
