Claims fell to 343,000 from 348,000 a week ago..."The next few weeks of data are subject to seasonal adjustment challenges relating to annual plant shutdowns in the auto industry," noted High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan.” Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-june-29-2013-7
ISM SERVICES INDEX – SLOWER GROWTH THAN EXPECTED (Advisor Perspectives)
“The headline NMI Composite Index is at 52.2 percent,
signaling slower growth than last month's 53.7 percent. In fact, it is the
lowest reading since February 2010.”Story at dshort.com at..
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ISM-Non-Manufacturing.php
WHO NEEDS A TREND-LINE
I think trend-line watching is passé now-a-days. I find that most traders follow the 50-day
moving average. Tuesday the 50-d MA was
1624. Tuesday, the daily chart went up to
1624 and then pulled back 10-pts to close at 1614. That’s a clear failure that has some traders
suggesting the S&P 500 will turn down from here. I still expect a big up-day to signal a
reversal to this bounce, if indeed it is going to reverse. (It may just continue
up.) The pattern was similar Wednesday as the market pulled back before it made
it to 1620. Over the last 5-days, the
S&P 500 has pulled back in the last hour of trading 4 0ut of 5 times. Late day selling is negative for the market
since the last hour is when the pros trade.
MARKET INTERNALS
Internals were mixed today, Wednesday.
Volume was about one-half normal today, so I don’t place
any importance of today’s action.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 1-point to 1615 (rounded).
VIX dropped about 1.5% to 16.20.Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 1-point to 1615 (rounded).
NTSM
Wednesday, the overall NTSM analysis is HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
