…Ho, hum…how many have called the top (and been wrong)? Here’s the teaser and link:
“Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeffrey Saut…has been targeting July 19 as ‘intermediate top’ for the market for two and a half months. He cited quantitative timing and technical models, and said he’s been raising cash.
Saut’s looking for a correction of 10% to 12%.” Story at…
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/07/19/jeffrey-saut-has-been-targeting-july-19-as-intermediate-top/
ANOTHER SELL CALL (Mark Hulbert, Marketwatch)
“…the “High Low Logic Index,” created by Norm Fosback in
1979, then the president of the Institute for Econometric Research, and
currently editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster” …is now in “sell mode”. Story at…http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sell-signal-from-key-market-indicator-2013-07-17
NO, PART TIME JOBS AREN’T ONLY ONES BEING CREATED
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-part-time-jobs-arent-only-ones-being-created-2013-07-19?dist=beforebell
FED PONDERS PART-TIME SHIFT
“…some saying President Barack Obama’s 2010 health-care law exacerbates
the trend…It’s hard to make any judgment,” Bernanke said when Stutzman asked if
the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’s mandates are slowing the
economy. Bernanke said that it has been cited in the economic outlook survey
known as the Beige Book, which the Federal Open Market Committee considers in
assessing the economy.
“One thing that we hear in the commentary that we get at
the FOMC is that some employers are hiring part-time in order to avoid the
mandate,” Bernanke said. He added that “the very high level of part-time
employment has been around since the beginning of the recovery, and we don’t
fully understand it.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-19/fed-ponders-part-time-shift-as-obamacare-role-questioned.html
FED: WE MADE GRANDMA INVEST IN JUNK BONDS (Market Watch)
“The risky hunt for investment income in a low-interest-rate world
has been a preoccupation of retirees for almost five years now—ever since the
Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in a bid to revive the
economy. So there’s been at least a small measure of satisfaction this week in
seeing the Fed acknowledge its role in putting investors in that bind. In a Monetary Policy Report, published
Wednesday in conjunction with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in Congress,
the Fed acknowledged that while the extended period of low interest rates had
done some economic good, it has also pushed some investors “to ‘reach for
yield,’ through excessive leverage, duration risk, credit risk, or other forms
of risk-taking.” Full story see…http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/07/18/fed-notes-excessive-investor-risk-taking/?
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up 2pts to 1692 (rounded).
VIX was down about 7% to 12.84. Friday, the S&P 500 was up 2pts to 1692 (rounded).
Closing up today (Friday), the S&P 500
again is up 9 out of the last 10-days and it is up 16-days out of the last 20. Combined with elevated sentiment values and a
high percent-above-the 200-day moving average, a correction is suggested. (The S&P 500 is 10.9% above its
200-dMA. The S&P 500 peaked in May
when the index was 12.7% above the 200-dMA.)
Further…
The S&P 500 has closed above its
previous (21 May 2013-1669) top 7-times, but as of today’s close, the index is
only 1.3% above the prior top; thus, the top has not been decisively
pierced. Together it’s just more
evidence that a correction may be imminent…BUT…the US stock market seems to be
the world’s safe haven, so perhaps it will again ignore technical analysis and
continue upward.
NTSM
Friday, the overall NTSM analysis switched
to SELL at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up. No system is perfect.
