…Experts blame the cool down in the rally on subpar economic growth, slowing corporate profit growth, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
"I think we're at an inflection point for the
market," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital.
"The U.S. economy is just limping along -- the improvements aren't quick
or meaningful enough."
Story at…http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/10/investing/stock-market-outlook-survey/index.html?iid=Lead
30-pros polled for the article guessed a year end finish
of up 14%, below the all-time highs. The
market is currently up 16%.
BARCLAYS CUTS GDP ESTIMATE
“Barclays said Wednesday that it cut its second-quarter
GDP trading estimate to 1.0% from 1.6% after the trade deficit widened in May.”
Summary at…http://www.marketwatch.com/story/barclays-cuts-us-q2-gdp-forecast-after-trade-2013-07-03?link=MW_latest_news
1% GDP growth is well below the supposed 2% stall-speed
for the economy, but the economy has been limping along below 2% before, so
that’s one old theory that has been proven false (so far) this time
around. If there is a recession coming,
it is probably a long way off. The
market is certainly not expecting a recession, but there are domestic concerns:
Oil over $100 per barrel, acts as a drag on the economy.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 1663 (rounded).
VIX was down about 1% to 14.21. Wednesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 1663 (rounded).
NTSM
Wednesday, the overall NTSM analysis is HOLD
at the close.
I commented yesterday that I was considering
getting back in the market in a more meaningful way.
Today…“Patience, young grasshopper…a better
re-entry point is likely further down the road. Grasshopper, seek first to
know your own journeys beginning and end. Seek then the other journeys of which
you are a close part. But in this seeking, know patience. Wear that traveler’s
cloak, which shelters and permits you to endure.” – Master Po
OFF TOPIC – Political Rant
“…a majority of U.S. registered voters consider Edward
Snowden a whistle-blower, not a traitor…”
Commentary at Zero Hedge at…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/latest-snowden-poll-results-55-say-whistleblower-34-say-traitor
As a youngster in the 1950’s, whenever I walked on the beaches
of Hatteras, North Carolina, I got tar on my feet. The tar was left from all the US ships
sunk in World War II by German submarines.
WW II was about security and civilians understood its importance: “Loose
lips sink ships.” Had we leaked the
ability to break Japanese codes, the War would have lasted much longer. In recent years, leaking the ability to track
overseas cellphone conversations delayed the capture of Bin Laden (and many
other terrorists) and probably cost lives.
The current surveillance of email and phone traffic sources
and recipients (not conversations) may be troubling to some, but it seems like
a reasonable system given the choices. The
current monitoring could have been challenged in secret through the Courts with
the ACLU footing the bill, but Snowden foolishly chose to go to the foreign
press. He is a traitor.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
