"Jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 343,000 in the week ended July 20 from a revised 336,000 the prior period, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington… “The trend in claims is fairly stable,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who projected an increase in claims. “We’re sustaining the improvement we saw from late last year, but not necessarily gaining a great deal of momentum on top of that.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased-by-7-000-to-343-000-last-week.html
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX HIGHER (ATA)
"The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index edged 0.1% higher in June after
surging 2.1% in May. (May’s increase was slightly lower than the 2.3% gain ATA
reported on June 18, 2013.) … Compared with June 2012, the SA index surged 5.9%, which is robust, although below May’s 6.5% year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2012, the tonnage index is up 4.7%.
…“The fact that tonnage didn’t fall back after the 2.1% surge in May is quite remarkable,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “While housing starts were down in June, tonnage was buoyed by other areas like auto production which was very strong in June and durable-goods output, which increased 0.5% during the month according to the Federal Reserve.” Press release from ATA at…
http://www.truckline.com/article.aspx?uid=ac7c219e-694c-4bb8-a23e-d70307577c08
Finally, some good news!
Truck tonnage has increased suggesting no recession.
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS BEATS FORECAST…BUT NOT IF YOU
EXCLUDE TRANSPORTATION (Doug Short)
Analysis at Advisor perspectives…http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Durable-Goods-Orders.php
$1 IN MARKET IN 2000, TODAY WOULD BE…$1 (CNBC)
“Investors have had to navigate a market that for the
last 13 years has delivered no real returns, according to Morgan Stanley's Greg
Fleming…Using some basic math—specifically, the government's inflation
calculator—the current value would have to be closer to 2,000 to have grown in
lockstep with inflation.” Story at CNBC
at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100893385
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% to 1690 (rounded).
VIX was down 2% to 12.97. Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% to 1690 (rounded).
VIX still is not confirming a
down-turn. Options players aren’t
concerned.
MARKET INTERNALS
Market internals don’t look good. Breadth was good on the day, but longer term
averages are turning down.
There were only 152 new-highs today (on an
up day); 3-days ago there were over 300-new-highs. The spread between new-highs and new-lows has
been accelerating to the downside each day since the high 4-days ago. Conclusion:
Market internals suggest further down for the S&P 500, and therefore, the
markets in general.
VOLUME
I noted yesterday that the volume at the
recent high was 15% below the month’s average surrounded by good volume on
either side of the high. Frequently the
volume is high at a top as shorts cover and the buy-at-any-cost mentality
pushes the market to a frothy new-high.
Those days are “statistically significant” in the NTSM system. That was definitely not the case at the
recent high.
Another way to make a high is simply to run
out of buyers. I found a high 2-years
ago where volume in the S&P 500 data was similar to the recent high. The high on 29 April 11 was accompanied by
volume 10% below the monthly average bookended by good volume for several days
before and after. That was the beginning
of a 19% correction. It may be just
coincidence though, so no need to make too much from it. The point is that the markets don’t require a
high-volume day to start a rather significant correction.
NTSM
Thursday, the overall NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
