“Payrolls rose by 195,000 workers for a second straight month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey projected a 165,000 gain…hourly earnings in the year ended in June advanced by the most since July 2011...[regarding the jobs Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group said]…“It’s a good number, especially with the upward revision…tapering is getting closer.” Full story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-05/payrolls-in-u-s-increased-195-000-in-june-unemployment-7-6-.html
Good news may be bad news for the markets…tapering of QE
by the Federal Reserve is closer.
Gartman suggests the same…
GARTMAN ON JOBS (CNBC)
“Dennis Gartman, the founder of The Gartman Letter, told
CNBC that the market response to the data could be "egregiously
erratic."
"The schizophrenic manner in which the markets
respond to the nonfarm payrolls data is extraordinary. I'm an old pit trader
and you could have traders look at that number and one side of the pit could be
limit bid and the other side limit offered - and both sides could be
right." Video at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100865428
JOBS –
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES (ZeroHedge)
“Obamacare
Strikes: Part-Time Jobs Surge To All Time High; Full-Time Jobs Plunge By
240,000…so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset
by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs.” – ZeroHedgehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000
We’ve seen this “Affordable Health Care Act” effect
discussed on Global Economic Advisors. If
a company has less than 50-full-time employees, it is exempt from Obamacare
rules. Solution? Convert fulltime employees to part-time.
ECB COMMITS TO LOW RATES (Reuters)
“The European Central Bank broke with precedent by
declaring it would keep interest rates at record lows for an extended period
and may yet cut further, responding to turbulence caused by the U.S. Federal
Reserve's exit plan from money-printing.”
Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/us-ecb-rates-idUSBRE9630D020130704
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1% to 1632 (rounded).
VIX dropped about 7% to 14.99.Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1% to 1632 (rounded).
The S&P 500 broke thru its 50-day moving
average by a bit, but on a low-volume- Friday after a Holiday. It settled on the upper trend line or slightly
above. I’m waiting for Monday to see
what happens.
MARKET INTERNALS
10-d MA of Breadth is up to 56%; the 20-d MA
is just below 50%. Breadth continues to improve and is now looking bullish.
NTSM
Friday, the overall NTSM analysis is HOLD at the close.
Repeating: I am not making any investment
decisions based on this week’s action.
Let’s watch what happens next week when the big-boys get back from
vacation.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also
hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes
up. No system is perfect.
