The Producer Price Index and Core PPI are shown in the chart below, updated thru today’s release.
“The producer price index in May posted a 0.5 percent increase after falling 0.7 percent prior month. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, held steady at 0.1 percent.” Story at Bloomberg Econoday at…
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456118&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp
More from Bloomberg…
“The increase in producer prices is very much an energy
story,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities Inc. in New York,
who accurately forecast the gain in core costs. “We’re not seeing much of the
gain translate into higher consumer prices yet.” Story at…http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-12/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-increase-more-than-forecast-in-june.html
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINES (Bloomberg
“Consumer confidence unexpectedly cooled in July
as Americans became less optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment
decreased to 83.9 in July from 84.1 the month prior, today’s report showed…The
gauge reached an almost six-year high of 84.5 in May.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-12/michigan-consumer-sentiment-decreased-to-83-9-in-july-from-84-1.html
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0,3% to 1680 (rounded), a new high.
VIX was down about 1.2% to 13.84. Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0,3% to 1680 (rounded), a new high.
Market internals are decelerating suggesting
a possible top is getting closer. The
S&P 500 is once again about 11% above its 200-dMA. That is an elevated number that is in the
range of short-term tops. It suggests
that the correction that seems to have ended, may only be hibernating a short
while; but, as we have seen, the US markets may continue to power up anyway. Even so, they can’t go up forever.
NTSM
Friday, the overall NTSM analysis remained
HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
