http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/31/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=HP_LN
ZeroHedge also noted that Q1 of 2013 (note
typo in the above chart) was revised down from 1.8% to 1.1% in today’s
release. That was the biggest miss in
27-months. Story at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/revised-q2-gdp-prints-18-higher-expected-prior-revised-lower
TRIM TABS JOBS
“DOWN SHARPLY” (dShort.com)
“TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S.
economy added 23,000 jobs in July, down sharply from 135,000 jobs in May and
182,000 jobs in June…TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of
daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S.
employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Anticipating-the-July-2013-Employment-Data.php
ADP JOBS NUMBERS AT 200K…10-times higher than Trim Tabs.
Interesting that there is such a difference. The important number will be the Government’s
Job report Friday.
All in all…mixed and conflicting data continues…
In the end, only one thing matters: Corporate earnings.
EARNINGS ANALYSIS (CNBC)
“As corporate earnings season passes the halfway point,
results have been good enough but not particularly good, signaling that a
hoped-for strong surge in the second half could be elusive. In fact, were it not for a robust financial
sector, profit on the S&P 500 would be tracking negative 1.6
percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch consensus
estimates.” Full story at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100924043
TAPERING WILL BEGIN IN SEPTEMBER – ART CASHIN (CNBC)
“Art Cashin of UBS said Tuesday that a little-noticed
announcement Monday lends further credence to the belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering in
September…‘Last night the Treasury announced that their borrowing will be
slashed by 25 to 30 percent for the balance of the year," he told CNBC. ‘So
the Fed has to taper to not be disruptive. There's not enough supply out there,
so they've got to cut back.’” Video at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/100925849
Hmmm…Maybe, maybe not.
FED DOWNGRADES ECONOMIC GROWTH TO MODEST (AP)
“The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the U.S. economy
is growing only modestly, a downgrade from its June assessment. The Fed expects
growth will pick up in the second half of the year, but the more cautious
message may be a signal that it's not ready to slow its bond purchases
soon. In a statement after a two-day
policy meeting, the Fed says it will keep buying $85 billion a month in bonds
to help lower long-term interest rates.” Story at Yahoo Finance… http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-downgrades-us-economic-growth-modest-180217007.html
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 made an intra-day, all-time high around 3PM, but then fell more than 10 pts in the final hour and ended unchanged at 1686 (rounded) due to the Fed announcement.
VIX was up about 0.5% to 13.45. Wednesday, the S&P 500 made an intra-day, all-time high around 3PM, but then fell more than 10 pts in the final hour and ended unchanged at 1686 (rounded) due to the Fed announcement.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE ended just below 50%.
Usually a value below 50% signals additional trouble for the markets.
The change in the daily spread of new-highs
and new-lows has been improving, though it is still pointing down. Market internals are still trending down so
internals suggests further down for the S&P 500.
NTSM
Wednesday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD
at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
