Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Falling Dollar

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“The charts, as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams, suggest that the Santa Claus rally is coming to town next month.” - Jim Cramer, Host of CNBC’s Mad Money.
 
THE DOLLAR PUMMETS – GOOD (Heritage Capital)
“While the dollar could or should bounce to at least 109...it does look like the major rally [in the dollar] has ended which was one of the three absolutes for the bear market in stocks to end as well.” Story at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/europe-dow-showing-emerging-index-leadership-as-dollar-plummets/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% to 3950.
-VIX slipped about another 3% to 22.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.833%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 223-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.8% Below its 200-dMA (had a typo here last Friday)& 4.3% above its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
My VIX indicator remained Bullish.  The VIX indicator is a good one so that’s a good sign.
 
The Friday rundown of indicators was very bullish (5-bear and 19-bull) and is confirming the bottom call from late September and mid-October. I didn’t see any difference today that would change my mind. Short-term indicators even improved.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +14 to +16 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +113 to +120. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT is neutral; VIX, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.