Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Jobless Claims ... Productivity ... ISM Non-Manufacturing Index ... Factory Orders

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
"In 2024, the Republican Party might present the nation with a presidential nominee whose unfitness has been demonstrated...After next Tuesday’s sobering election results, Democrats should resolve not to insult and imperil the nation by doing likewise... Regarding Biden and Harris, the national Democratic Party faces two tests of stewardship: Its imprimatur cannot again be bestowed on either of them...Biden is not just past his prime; even adequacy is in his past. And this is Harris’s prime." – George Will.

Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS / PRODUCTIVITY (YahooFinance)
“New weekly jobless claims are out this morning, with Initial Jobless Claims reaching 217K, beneath expectations and 1000 fewer claims than the upwardly revised 218K the previous week. Continuing Claims reached 1.485 million -- higher than recent reads, but historically still pretty low... Productivity numbers are out this morning, as well. A headline of +0.3% is 10 basis points (bps) lower than expectations...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-data-gradually-dwindles-jobless-143302146.html
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX (ISM via prNewswire)
“Economic activity in the services sector grew in October for the 29th month in a row — with the Services PMI® registering 54.4 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®...‘In October, the Services PMI® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September's reading of 56.7 percent. This is the lowest reading since May 2020, when the index registered 45.2 percent.’” Press release at... 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-4-october-2022-services-ism-report-on-business-301666703.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased moderately in September as a surge in bookings for civilian aircraft was partially offset by declines elsewhere, suggesting a loss of momentum in manufacturing amid rapidly rising borrowing costs. The Commerce Department said on Thursday that factory orders rose 0.3% after gaining 0.2% in August.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-factory-orders-rise-moderately-september-2022-11-03/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dropped about 1.1% to 3720.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 25.30.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.150%. (It was 1.631% at the beginning of 2022.)
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 22.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 211-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.2% Below its 200-dMA & 2.5% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was / is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
VIX dropped again as the S&P 500 fell more than 1%. There was a piece on CNN that said the VIX was not good at predicting market moves. Ok, but a falling VIX is suggesting smaller moves ahead with less volatility. That usually means a more bullish S&P 500.  Now the Options folks may just be confused like the rest of the markets.
 
The 10-day Fosback New-Hi/New-low Logic Index is still giving a bearish signal. Basically, this indicator is bearish because both new-highs and new-lows are elevated. This is a short-term indicator and is not suggesting that there is a crash coming, but possibly, a return to the prior lows.
 
The S&P 500 is lagging Breadth even more than Wednesday giving a stronger buy signal. This indicator called the recent bottoms in June and September.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +7 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +119 to +125. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral; PRICE is bullish. 
 
Bottom line: I’m a still a Bull, but let’s see what happens in the next few sessions.
 
I should be selling XLK and QLD. Technology was the last sector standing and investors are taking it down now. Steve Grasso said on CNBC’s fast Money that the market will bottom when Apple bottoms and Apple isn’t there yet. He may be right, but I still think the bottom is in the 3600 zone.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs. It may be time to take profits...we’ll see.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.