“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
Have a great Thanksgiving! The NYSE is closed for the Holiday, tomorrow, and will close at 1PM Friday.
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting signaled that the central bank is seeing progress in its fight against high inflation and is looking to slow the pace of rate hikes, meaning smaller ones through the end of this year and into 2023. ‘A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
NEW HOME SALES (YahooFinance)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly jumped in October, shrugging off rising mortgage rates and house prices, which have drastically eroded affordability. New home sales rebounded 7.5%...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-153351014.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FoxBusiness)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly ticked higher last week, hitting the highest level in three months. Figures released Wednesday by the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ended Nov. 19 rose to 240,000...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise-highest-level-august
DURABLE ORDERS (FoxBusiness)
“The United States Census Bureau announced on Wednesday that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased in October, despite persistent inflation and global economic instability... Orders for overall durable goods also went up by 1%...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-orders-us-durable-goods-increased-during-october-despite-inflation
TRUMP LOSES AGAIN (msn.com)
“Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski clinched reelection Wednesday, repelling a challenger backed by former President Donald Trump less than two years after Murkowski voted for conviction in Trump’s impeachment trial.” Story at...
Murkowski wins another Senate term in Alaska (msn.com)
ANOTHER BLOW TO THE SUPREME COURT (NY Times via msn.com)
“The New York Times reported that the Rev. Rob Schenck, a former anti-abortion activist, had spent years seeking influence at the Supreme Court, developing a network of top donors and court insiders. Schenck alleges that his sources formed close relationships with Thomas, Alito and Justice Antonin Scalia — bonds so close that one couple allegedly received a tipoff about the result in a major case, Burwell v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., at a dinner with Alito and his wife.” Story at...
Opinion: Bombshell report deals another blow to the Supreme Court's reputation (msn.com)
There’s one problem with this hit piece...it may be
completely made up. It is not corroborated
by any of the parties and justice Alito completely denies it.
Here’s what the WSJ had to say in its piece titled, “Targeting Justice Alito”:
“To call this story uncorroborated is to overstate its credibility. Rob Schenck, a pastor who has since turned against his former evangelical allies, claims he heard from a woman who heard from Justice Alito at a dinner party in 2014 about the pending opinion in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, a religious liberty case. Justice Alito denies leaking anything, and the woman denies hearing about it...This is another case of political intimidation in the service of undermining public confidence in the Court. The accusation is second-hand hearsay from a politically motivated source...The real reason Democrats are upset is because they’ve lost the Court as a backstop legislature for policies they can’t get through Congress.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/targeting-justice-samuel-alito-rob-schenck-supreme-court-hobby-lobby-sheldon-whitehouse-11669154588
The above NYT/MSN article is extremely disturbing to
me. The Liberal Left, assisted by liberal
media outlets, is trying to destroy the Supreme Court, while the right-wing hacks
(Trump, Hannity, Lake, et al) and its media tools are undermining faith in
elections, the foundation of a free society. None of this bodes well for the
future of our country.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4027.
-VIX slipped about another 4% to 20.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.700%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 225-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.8% Below its 200-dMA & 6.3% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.)
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already
owned a small position in CVX.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Volume fell off as the day progressed so there’s not much to glean from today’s action...but I’ll try anyway. Technology continues to perform well. Indices don’t usually diverge for too long. I have been wondering whether the Bulls or Bears would win. The bulls need Technology to move higher. That will boost the S&P 500 too and should carry the S&P 500 to new highs. If Technology can’t “catch-up,” then the other major Indices (Dow and S&P 500) may follow Technology lower. I don’t expect that to happen since I am still in the Bull camp.
The VIX fell again today.
The pundits on CNBC are talking about how the falling VIX is bearish, because
when the last big rally peaked in August the VIX had fallen below 20. Frankly,
they are just guessing. A falling VIX simply indicates less volatility and that
can also be seen as bullish and that’s how I view it – bullish.
The indicator sums below are the highest I have seen
since I started tracking my indicators and that data goes back to 2016. It is really a bullish signal, but I do worry
that when markets get too skewed way to one side, it could portend a
reversal. Let’s hope that’s not the case
this time – for now, I’ll call it bullish.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +19
to +21 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +131 to +149.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT is neutral; VIX, VOLUME & PRICE
are bullish. (The important Buy signal
from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first
buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of
retests of the June low.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577
on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest
those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested
in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75%
stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious
bear signs.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting signaled that the central bank is seeing progress in its fight against high inflation and is looking to slow the pace of rate hikes, meaning smaller ones through the end of this year and into 2023. ‘A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly jumped in October, shrugging off rising mortgage rates and house prices, which have drastically eroded affordability. New home sales rebounded 7.5%...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-153351014.html
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly ticked higher last week, hitting the highest level in three months. Figures released Wednesday by the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ended Nov. 19 rose to 240,000...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise-highest-level-august
“The United States Census Bureau announced on Wednesday that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased in October, despite persistent inflation and global economic instability... Orders for overall durable goods also went up by 1%...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-orders-us-durable-goods-increased-during-october-despite-inflation
“Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski clinched reelection Wednesday, repelling a challenger backed by former President Donald Trump less than two years after Murkowski voted for conviction in Trump’s impeachment trial.” Story at...
Murkowski wins another Senate term in Alaska (msn.com)
“The New York Times reported that the Rev. Rob Schenck, a former anti-abortion activist, had spent years seeking influence at the Supreme Court, developing a network of top donors and court insiders. Schenck alleges that his sources formed close relationships with Thomas, Alito and Justice Antonin Scalia — bonds so close that one couple allegedly received a tipoff about the result in a major case, Burwell v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., at a dinner with Alito and his wife.” Story at...
Opinion: Bombshell report deals another blow to the Supreme Court's reputation (msn.com)
Here’s what the WSJ had to say in its piece titled, “Targeting Justice Alito”:
“To call this story uncorroborated is to overstate its credibility. Rob Schenck, a pastor who has since turned against his former evangelical allies, claims he heard from a woman who heard from Justice Alito at a dinner party in 2014 about the pending opinion in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, a religious liberty case. Justice Alito denies leaking anything, and the woman denies hearing about it...This is another case of political intimidation in the service of undermining public confidence in the Court. The accusation is second-hand hearsay from a politically motivated source...The real reason Democrats are upset is because they’ve lost the Court as a backstop legislature for policies they can’t get through Congress.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/targeting-justice-samuel-alito-rob-schenck-supreme-court-hobby-lobby-sheldon-whitehouse-11669154588
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4027.
-VIX slipped about another 4% to 20.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.700%.
-Drop from Top: 16% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 225-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.8% Below its 200-dMA & 6.3% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.)
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
Volume fell off as the day progressed so there’s not much to glean from today’s action...but I’ll try anyway. Technology continues to perform well. Indices don’t usually diverge for too long. I have been wondering whether the Bulls or Bears would win. The bulls need Technology to move higher. That will boost the S&P 500 too and should carry the S&P 500 to new highs. If Technology can’t “catch-up,” then the other major Indices (Dow and S&P 500) may follow Technology lower. I don’t expect that to happen since I am still in the Bull camp.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
