Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... JOLTS

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
 
“Where The New York Times has put the alleged Pelosi assassination attempt on its front page for two days in a row, it buried the story of the Kavanaugh murder plot on page A20. Three days later, none of the Sunday morning political shows, such as NBC’s “Meet the Press,” even mentioned the assassination attempt.” – Michael Shellenberger, author, former public relations professional and 2018 Democratic candidate for Governor in California.
 
“The U.S. Navy's Ohio class ballistic missile submarine USS Rhode Island has made a very uncommon public port visit to the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar. The public announcement about this stopover is also unusual...” Story at...
Second U.S. Ballistic Missile Submarine Makes Unusual Appearance In Just Two Weeks (msn.com)
Clear and simple...this is a warning to Russia. Using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is not a good idea.
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Job openings surged in September despite Federal Reserve efforts aimed at loosening up a historically tight labor market that has helped feed the highest inflation readings in four decades. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million... September’s data indicates that there are 1.9 job openings for every available worker.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/jolts-september-2022.html
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM via prNewswire)
"The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 52.8 percent recorded in August. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 28th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-50-9-september-2022-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301638361.html
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Kitco / Reuters)
“U.S. construction spending unexpectedly rebounded in September, amid a surge in investment in nonresidential structures that offset a further decline in outlays on single-family homebuilding. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending rose 0.2% in September after declining 0.6% in August.” Story at...
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-11-01/U-S-construction-spending-unexpectedly-rebounds-in-September.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4% to 3856.
-VIX bucked the trend and dipped about 0.1% to 25.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.050%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 19.6% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 209-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.1% Below its 200-dMA & 0.7% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was / is in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Advancers beat decliners; up-volume was more than double down-volume; new-highs outpaced new-lows and the S&P 500 was down.  That is another weird day. It really means that the small cap stocks are outpacing the large-caps and we see that in the Indices.  The Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite were both up on the day while other major indices were down.  Usually, the S&P 500 will follow the majority so I’d expect the S&P 500 to move up tomorrow or Thursday.  Wednesday could be a bad day depending on how Mr. Market interprets the news from the Fed meeting.
 
Today, (Tuesday) unchanged volume was high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. My problem is that it is frequently a false signal. This indicator has been correct a couple times when we’ve seen it recently, but not the most recent ones on 18 & 21 October. Mr. Market ignored those signals. The jury is still out on the 28 October signal. Now, I’ll ignore it again due to other more compelling bullish signs. Remember, the Friday run down of indicators was extremely bullish.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +13 to +8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +111 to +115. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral; PRICE & VOLUME are bullish. 
 
Bottom line: I’m a Bull: I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
#1. XLE  #2. ITA #3. IBB

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.