CPI ... Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
CPI / CORE CPI (CNBC)
“Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago... Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year.” Story at... 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2024-.html
 
BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in February to 89.4, marking the 26th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem in operating their business, up three points from last month and replacing labor quality as the top problem.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/optimism-on-main-street-declines-as-inflation-looms-as-top-challenge/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 5175.
-VIX declined about 9% to 13.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.151%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – SOLD 3/11/2024. I couldn’t take the daily bad news anymore. When the news ends it may be a good buy – for me, it’s goodbye.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  Today was another all-time high for the S&P 500. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there are a few top indicators that are bearish and that is not a strong top signal.
 
Bear Indicators continue to climb, but overall, indicators remained bullish.
 
5.9% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, today, 12 March 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator. This is lower than average number, but even if there were to be a correction, this number suggests that it would be less than a 10% decline.) I am not predicting a correction.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are10 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Monday, there were 8 bear-signs and 15 bull-signs. Here are a few of the significant indicators. 
 
We still see the market is stretched to the high side:
- The S&P 500 is 13.5% above its 200-dMA. Markets are getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/12/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
 
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the possibility that markets could retreat and Friday’s Outside Reversal Day is concerning, even though it is not always correct.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in leveraged positions if warranted.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30 & Monday I added it to the Momentum analysis.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.