“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Housing starts rebounded in February, surging by 10.7%— signaling a recovery in the housing market...” Video at...
https://www.google.com/searchq=housing+starts+&sca_esv=9922c09ff6e53a84&sca_upv=1&source=hp&ei=1CX6Zd6RAvCi5NoPjcWAQA&iflsig=ANes7DEAAAAAZfoz5Bit5MtmnDJNQrX7u8oXHBkKK2f0&ved=0ahUKEwjey9qdw4GFAxVwEVkFHY0iAAgQ4dUDCBg&uact=5&oq=housing+starts+&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6Ig9ob3VzaW5nIHN0YXJ0cyAyBBAAGAMyCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBMgsQABiABBixAxiDATIEEAAYAzILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEyCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBMg4QABiABBiKBRixAxiDATIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwEyBBAAGAMyBBAAGANItxVQAFjLEnAAeACQAQCYAcsBoAGzDqoBBjMuMTEuMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCD6ACiQ_CAhEQLhiABBixAxiDARjHARjRA8ICCxAuGIAEGMcBGNEDwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYxwEY0QPCAgsQLhiABBixAxiDAcICDhAuGIAEGIoFGLEDGIMBwgIIEAAYgAQYsQPCAgUQABiABMICCxAAGIAEGIoFGJIDwgIIEC4YgAQYsQPCAggQABiABBjJA8ICCBAuGLEDGIAEwgILEC4YgAQYxwEYrwGYAwCSBwYzLjEwLjKgB_OCAQ&sclient=gws-wiz#ip=1
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5179.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.293%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is 12.9% above its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day so this indicator has moved back into the red (bearish side).
6.2% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high today, 19 March 2024. The
5-year average was for this stat is about 6.7% so today’s number is OK. Low
numbers indicate poor breadth and can portend corrections greater than 10%.
Today there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day. This
cancels the Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“Outside reversal is a price chart pattern in investing that occurs when an asset’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low prices of the previous day. It is also known as a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern. It can indicate a change in market trend and provide a trading signal to investors.” From...
https://due.com/terms/outside-reversal/
The McClellan Oscillator turned positive today.
Indicators bounced more strongly to the Bull side,
Tuesday. The market is suggesting that tomorrow’s Fed meeting will not have
significant surprises.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 7 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Monday, there were 10 bear-signs and 14 bull. Here are a few of the significant indicators.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
My rules say I am supposed to sell an issue that falls out of the top 3 in Percentile Rank. XLK is in 5th place based on Momentum. That would now mean selling XLK. I will remain patient a little longer. Still, the gain in the last 40-days (below) shows other ETFs with better gains.
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right! Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move. I’ll wait a bit longer.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5179.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.293%.
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
The S&P 500 is 12.9% above its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day so this indicator has moved back into the red (bearish side).
“Outside reversal is a price chart pattern in investing that occurs when an asset’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low prices of the previous day. It is also known as a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern. It can indicate a change in market trend and provide a trading signal to investors.” From...
https://due.com/terms/outside-reversal/
Now there are 7 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Monday, there were 10 bear-signs and 14 bull. Here are a few of the significant indicators.
I remain cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
My rules say I am supposed to sell an issue that falls out of the top 3 in Percentile Rank. XLK is in 5th place based on Momentum. That would now mean selling XLK. I will remain patient a little longer. Still, the gain in the last 40-days (below) shows other ETFs with better gains.
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right! Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move. I’ll wait a bit longer.
