PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Retail Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Sanders, an independent senator representing Vermont,
announced he plans to file a bill that would establish the 32-hour workweek as
standard across the United States, while mandating that workers do not lose
pay.” Story at...
Millions
of Americans' Work Hours Would Change Under New Plan (msn.com)
My cmt: 20% less production at the same wage? The cost of
labor would go up 20%. Producers would need to raise prices to stay even, creating
a significant boost to inflation and making the U.S. less competitive. That
drives more jobs out of the country. Where do these guys come up with this
stuff?
“Much of the social history of the Western world over the
past three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good.”
― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the
Hoover Institution.
“Robert Hur [former Special Counsel] was roundly
denounced by the White House and its media allies for an election-year hit job
when he released his 345-page report on President Biden’s handling of
classified material in February... In a press conference the night the report
was made public, the President waxed indignant that Mr. Hur said that he
couldn’t name within several years when his son Beau had died. “How in the hell
dare he raise that?” Mr. Biden said. But the transcript of Mr. Hur’s interview
with Mr. Biden, which was released Tuesday, reveals several memory lapses by
the President. It also confirms that Mr. Biden—not Mr. Hur—brought up Beau.
This and the other presidential confusions the report highlights confirm Mr.
Hur’s conclusion.” – WSJ Editorial Staff. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/robert-hur-house-judiciary-testimony-joe-biden-classified-documents-b7e5f155
My cmt: President Biden is 81; Warren Buffet is 93. Most
readers of this blog have heard them speak on many occasions. Consider their
speech patterns, clarity of thought and ability to handle reporter’s questions.
Clearly, President Biden is failing.
“In 2024, California introduced a groundbreaking yet
controversial financial measure: the exit tax. This unprecedented policy
mandates that individuals relocating out of the state pay a tax on their net
worth...” From...
California
Attempting "Exit Tax" In 2024 To Prevent Fleeing Wealthy (msn.com)
You can check out any time you like...But you can never
leave...
PPI (CNBC)
“Wholesale prices accelerated at a faster-than-expected
pace in February, another reminder that inflation remains a troublesome issue
for the U.S. economy. The producer
price index, which measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and
finished goods, jumped 0.6% on the month... Excluding food and energy, the core
PPI accelerated by 0.3%, compared with the estimate for a 0.2% increase.” Sory at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/producer-price-index-february-2024-wholesale-inflation-rose-0point6percent-in-february.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MorningStar)
“The number of Americans who applied for unemployment
benefits last week slipped to 209,000 and continued to signal a strong labor
market and low level of layoffs... The number of people collecting unemployment
benefits in the U.S., meanwhile, rose by 17,000 to 1.81 million, the government
said.” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240314311/jobless-claims-dip-to-209000-and-still-show-no-sign-of-rising-layoffs
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Retail sales rebounded in February after seeing their
steepest decline in nearly a year during the month prior.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in February from the previous
month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rebound-in-february-in-sign-of-consumer-spending-resilience-124309447.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 5150.
-VIX rose about 4% to 14.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.292%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. The S&P 500 is at the low end of its channel. If this is a
turning point, some might suggest the markets will go up. Could be, but the trend has been up for some
time so I would interpret this signal as predicting a turn down. Still, “High-unchanged-volume”
is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
The S&P 500 is once again back to its lower trend
line. This level needs to hold or we may
see more selling.
Indicators reversed to the Bear side today, but they are close enough to evenly balanced that it should be considered a neutral position.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 12 bear-signs and 11-Bull. Wednesday,
there were 8 bear-signs and 17 bull-signs. Here are a few of the significant
indicators.
-On the Bull side, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure
remains bullish, but just barely.
For the Bears, the market remains stretched to the high
side:
- The S&P 500 is 12.7% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA,
today, 3/14/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
-McClellan Oscillator turned bearish today.
The indicator summary suggests we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat. The key now is to watch price
action. The S&P 500 is at its lower
trendline. If the Index breaks significantly
below the lower trendline, I will be selling leveraged ETFs, QLD and UWM. I don’t
know what “significant” means – it’s more of a feel for the price action
Friday. If the Index closes below its
trend line on successive days, that will be a sign that we may be in for more
of a pullback. Markets may just bounce higher as they have in the past, we’ll
have to wait and see.
The Fed’s inflation gage is the PCE and it will not be updated
until 29 March so it’s possible that we may see some weakness until then, however,
I am guessing. Markets have shrugged off
higher than expected CPI and PPI reading before.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but watching price action
and the lower trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals dropped to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
