Washington DC: “You will never find a more wretched hive
of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan
NO PLAN TO END SHUTDOWN (Daily Caller)
“One month into Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s
decision to spark a government shutdown, Democrats are reading from separate
playbooks about how to end the standoff. Though more Democrats appear ready to
end the weeks-long stalemate as soon as next week, few lawmakers appear to
share the same victory scenario if the caucus relents in their hardball
tactics. The Daily Caller News Foundation asked more than a dozen Senate
Democrats to specify their demands to reopen the government but none gave the
same answer.. “They’ve dug themselves in a hole and now they’re trying to
figure out how to get out of it,” Republican Indiana Sen. Jim Banks told the
DCNF. “I expect that after election day is over next week, then they can get
serious about untangling their pretzel and reopening the government.” Story
at...
‘Dug
Themselves In A Hole’: Democrats Have No Clear Plan To End Schumer Shutdown
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
ANOTHER FED CUT NOT CERTAIN (Bloomberg)
“Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan
Goolsbee said he wants to see more data before making a decision about how to
vote at the central bank’s December meeting, but warned he’s more concerned
about inflation than the labor market right now.
‘I’m not decided going into the December meeting,”
Goolsbee said Monday on Yahoo Finance. ‘I am nervous about the inflation side
of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for four and a half
years and it’s trending the wrong way.’” Story at...
Fed’s
Goolsbee More Worried by Inflation Than Job Market
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector
contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month
expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's
supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing
PMI® Report... "The Manufacturing PMI® registered
48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the
reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in
expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing
PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally
indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-48-7-october-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302601422.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6852.
-VIX declined about 2% to 17.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.108%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +2 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARSH sign.
Ruh-Roh... Monday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. Now we have seen 4 in a row. Looks like a cluster to me. The Fosback
New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen.
Fosback’s indicator is still neutral. Still, it may be time to worry a little.
Fosback’s indicator doesn’t signal very often although it called the top of the
Covid Pandemic Bear market to the day. There are other worrying bear signs.
The S&P 500 is again 12% above its 200-dMA. 10-15%
signals a trouble area for this indicator and 12% is a sell signal in my system.
The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE dropped below 50% indicating that
less than half of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 week –
another Bear sign.
At the most recent high on the S&P 500 last week,
4.1% of issue on the NYSE made new 52-week highs and other measures of breadth were ok. That suggests, but does not guarantee, that a
correction now (if one were to occur) would be a decline of 10% or less.
Both Fed Chair Powell and now Chicago Fed President Goolsbee
(see article above) are throwing cold water on a rate cut in December. That may
pressure markets some. With indicators declining, it appears that the S&P
500 wants to decline to its lower trend line.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio
changes at this point.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6840.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.083%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from
Zero to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication.
I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths
daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
-Friday there was another Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. 3 in a row? Looks like a cluster to me. The Fosback New-high/New-low
Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen. Fosback’s
indicator is still neutral. Since most indicators remain bullish and there are
12 bullish indicators today, I am not too concerned about the Hindenburg Omen.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, in a Holding pattern.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
“During another press conference of lies and deceit
today, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) claims the American people are on the
side of the Republicans and that they know the Democrats "caused" the
government shutdown.” Video at...
'The
People Are Paying Attention': Mike Johnson Resorts To Outright Lies, Claims
Americans Are Only Blaming Democrats For The Government Shutdown | Watch
My cmt: I haven’t done any polling so I haven’t a clue
who the American people blame for the shutdown. I can only say that regardless
of what you think about the issues, the Democrats are the minority party; they
were voted out of office and they are blackmailing the country. Their demand
is, “Do what we want, or we shut down the Government.” And they are blaming the
Republicans??! The press is buying this BS? So much for the “un-biased” press.
HEAD OF US MILITARY IN LATIN AMERICA TO STEP DOWN
(Reuters)
“The admiral who leads U.S. military forces in Latin
America {commander of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)},will step down at the
end of this year, two years ahead of schedule, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
announced on Thursday, in a surprise move amid escalating tensions with
Venezuela. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that there had been
tension between Admiral Alvin Holsey and Hegseth over operations in the
Caribbean and questions about whether he would be fired in the days leading up
to the announcement...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/surprise-move-head-us-military-latin-america-step-down-2025-10-16/
My cmt: I wondered how the military could follow Trump’s
illegal orders to attack suspected drug-boats.
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST (CNN)
“...Lt. Gen. Joe McGee, the director for Strategy, Plans,
and Policy on the Joint Staff, left his position earlier this month, the
sources said. They added that McGee had frequently “pushed back” against
Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine on issues ranging
from Russia and Ukraine to military operations in the Caribbean.” Story at...
Exclusive:
Three-star general pushed out amid tensions with Hegseth
My cmt: The GOP voted to support Trump’s attacks on
suspected drug cartels in international waters.
ANOTHER CREDIT DOWNGRADE (Moneywise)
“On Oct. 24, Scope downgraded the U.S. local and foreign
currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings from AA to AA-. (1)
‘Sustained deterioration in public finances and a
weakening of governance standards drive the downgrade,’ the agency said in a
statement. With ‘persistently elevated’ federal deficits and a rising net
interest payment burden, Scope expects the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio to
reach 140% by 2030 — well above its sovereign peers.” Story at...
US
gets hit with another credit downgrade — agency warns of ‘sustained
deterioration’ of finances and ‘weakening’ governance. What you need to know
JOBS (Seeking Alpha)
“ADP (ADP), the payrolls processing firm
that issues a monthly report on private sector employment, estimated that U.S.
private sector employers added 14,250
jobs in the four weeks ended Oct. 11, 2025, the company said on
Tuesday.
The four-week moving average, to be issued every
Tuesday, helps to provide some data on the labor market as the government
shutdown deprives economists and policymakers of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics' monthly jobs reports and weekly initial jobless claims.” Story
at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509265-us-private-sector-added-143k-jobs-in-four-weeks-ended-oct-11-adp-estimates
My cmt: 14,250 jobs is a very low number and not a sign
of a healthy economy.
JOB CREATION NEAR ZERO (Fortune)
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew a stark picture
of a labor market that looks fine on the surface—4.3% unemployment, solid
consumer spending—but is quietly losing momentum underneath. Once you adjust
for statistical overcounting in the payroll data, he said during a press
conference Wednesday following the FOMC meeting, ‘job creation is pretty close
to zero.”’
Jerome
Powell says the AI hiring apocalypse is real: ‘Job creation is pretty close to
zero’
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6822.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.097%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell from +5
to Zero (equal numbers of Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the
spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
Wow. Thursday, we note that Unchanged volume was extremely
high, a sign of confusion that some believe precedes a change in market
direction. This time the likely direction would be down. It was twice my
threshold level and that is the highest level I have seen except for options
expiration days. I’ve never included this in my indicators since it is wrong
much more than right. One wonders whether the extreme number will make this an
accurate indicator this time.
There were other negative signs:
-Wednesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal. My
rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the
Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
-Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. 2 in a row, but no cluster yet.
-New-high/new-low data is bearish.
-The McClellan Oscillator is negative, a bearish sign.
-Up-volume is falling.
Not all the news was bad:
-The S&P 500 is declined to 11.7% greater than its
200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12%
is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one
indicator.)
-Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time,
BOTTOM LINE
Indicators have raised a concern so I’m neutral, in a
Holding pattern. If yesterday was a top, we can expect a retreat of less than
10%.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
TIME TO HOARD CASH? (USA Today)
“Price-to-earnings ratios tell you if a stock is
overvalued or undervalued. A common yardstick, the cyclically adjusted
price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, stands at 39.65 for
the S&P 500. The last time – indeed, the only time – it ranged that high
before was at the peak of the dot-com bubble, in 1999-2000. The CAPE ratio also
spiked in 1929, just before the Great Depression...
...’Right now, I’m telling clients to shore up their
cash," said Zaneilia
Harris, a certified financial planner in Washington, DC. "Just in case
something is needed, you’re not pulling from your portfolio when it’s down.’ Younger
investors and retirement savers might consider building some cash reserves,
Harris said, even if it’s only a small percentage of their investable dollars. Should
stocks fall, anyone with cash will have an opportunity to buy shares at a
discount.” Story at...
The
stock market may be in an AI bubble. Is it time to hoard cash?
My cmt: The general answer to the question was, “No,
investors shouldn’t try to time the market.” While the average investor may not
be able to do it. I’ll sell high and buy low. NTSM is not your average investor.
I have no intention of hanging around thru a major downturn
FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its second
straight interest rate cut, though Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets
when he threw doubt on whether another reduction is coming in December. By a
10-2 vote, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee lowered its
benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. In addition to the
rate move, the Fed announced that it would be ending the reduction of its asset
purchases – a process known as quantitative tightening – on Dec 1.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/fed-rate-decision-october-2025.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.9 million barrels from the
previous week. At 416.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at 6891.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.92. (Are the Options Players
getting worried?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.076%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The markets didn’t like Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after
the official rate cut announcement. Presumably, it was his comments regarding
another rate cut in December. Powell said, “In the committee’s discussions at
this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in
December,”
Stock market analysts confirmed that yesterday
(Tuesday) was the weakest market breadth ever recorded for a day when the
S&P 500 closed with a positive gain.
-Despite the S&P 500 rising by 0.23% to a new
all-time high, nearly 80% of stocks in the index declined.
-Data from Bespoke Investment Group confirmed that the
advance/decline ratio for Tuesday was the worst in history for an
"up" day in the S&P 500. –
from Yahoo Finance at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-hits-6-900-071335263.html
Curiously, I can’t confirm the numbers with my,
admittedly different, method of looking at breadth. For example, my 150-dMA of issues advancing
on the NYSE showed that more than 52% of issues advanced over the last seven
and a half months. On the near term, nearly 53% of issues on the NYSE have
advanced over the last 2-weeks. At the high yesterday, 4.1% of issues on the
NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s not a great number, but it’s not low
enough to give a correction signal. It was below 3% back in August. I’m not
arguing with Bespoke. I am sure that their numbers are correct. I just can’t
confirm that it is time to sell this market.
I will caution that calling a top is witch craft and while I have had
great success calling major tops, I have missed smaller correction tops.
I will say this: Markets are approaching a top. Whether it will be a major top or just a
correction remains to be seen.
.
If you don’t own Nvidia are you missing its advance?
Probably not. NVDA is 15% of the XLK ETF and 8% of the S&P 500.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell from
+11 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication.
I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths
daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
On Wednesday there was a new intra-day all-time high for
the S&P 500 and it closed fractionally below the prior high. At all-time
highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs,
we see that around 5.4% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs
today. That number is below the 5-year
average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e.,
new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.
There were negative signs:
-The S&P 500 is 12.9% greater than its 200-dMA. The
10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell
point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
-Wednesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a
potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed
when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of
the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced
traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in
conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance
or technical
studies.” – Investopedia.
My rule is that this signal remains in place for
10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
-Wednesday there was a Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator
that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market
instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship
that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market
conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and
lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. No cluster yet.
BOTTOM LINE
Indicators have raised a concern so I’m neutral in a Hold
pattern. The Index is stretched above its 200-dMA. I expect a top soon. Then
we’ll also get a warning about how extensive a pullback may be. If today was a
top, we can expect less than a 10% retreat.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via prnewswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in
October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September... "Consumer
confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly
revised September level," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist,
Global Indicators at The Conference Board... Preliminary data suggest
that consumers' holiday spending will be down this season compared to
last year. Notably consumers expect to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on
non-gifts (all in nominal terms). When asked what will be driving their
spending decisions over the upcoming holidays, consumers most frequently cited
promotions and getting the most out of every dollar.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-virtually-unchanged-in-october-302596825.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 68991.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.44. (Are the Options Players
getting worried?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.978%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I
track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish (same as yesterday). The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than yesterday. Indicators look good,
but the S&P 50 continues to defy gravity and march higher. I don’t have a
top signal yet.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +11
(11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a strong Bullish indication. I
consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths
daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
On Monday there was a new all-time high for the S&P
500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at
New, 52-week highs, we see that around 4.1% of issues on the NYSE made new
52-week highs today. That number is
below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger
a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.
Bollinger Bands were overbought today, but RSI is solidly
neutral for now, so no need for panic yet- it does not appear that a top is in.
There were some negative signs:
-The S&P 500 is 13% greater than its 200-dMA. The
10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell
point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
BOTTOM LINE
Overall, indicators remain in good shape; I’m Bullish,
but cautious because the Index is stretched above its 200-dMA. I expect a top
soon. Then we’ll also get a warning about how extensive a pullback may be.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
DEALERSHIPS PREPARING FOR A SIGNIFICANT MARKET CORRECTION
(Motor1.com)
“In a viral video with more than 344,000 views, car
expert Molly Baxter (@mollybaxter_cars) shared a warning about what she’s
hearing in the car world.
Baxter says dealerships are preparing for a "market
correction" unlike anything seen since the 2008 financial crisis. "I
don't know exactly what day it's gonna happen, but I do know there's about to
be a 30% drop in vehicle prices in a singular day sometime within the next
three months," Baxter shares in the video.” Story at...
Expert
Says Dealerships Are Preparing for a Major 'Market Correction' That'll See Car
Prices Change by 30%
UNDERWEIGHT US STOCKS (MarketWatch)
“The S&P 500 is now up 14.6% so far in 2025, the
Nasdaq Composite up 18.8%. But that’s not good enough for Tim Hayes, global
chief strategist at Ned Davis Research. In a note published Thursday, Hayes
says investors should reduce their exposure to the U.S. and increase their
weighting in Japan and emerging markets (EM)....
...Among the regional indices, the MSCI Emerging Markets
index has posted the biggest advance in 2025, a gain of 25% compared with 14%
for the MSCI U.S. index, according to Hayes. And over the last 21 days, the
MSCI Japan index has been strongest, gaining 4% compared with a marginal
advance for the U.S. And these relative moves have triggered a sell signal for
U.S. stocks in NDR’s equity modeling, as the smoothed 20-day change of the U.S.
relative strength line...has fallen to its lowest level since the April equity
swoon.” Story at...
This
strategist’s theory of relativity says it’s time to be underweight U.S. stocks
My cmt: The Ned Davis Research is one of the premier
stock market advisory firms in the US.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 6875.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.987%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +9 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), still a strong
Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
On Monday there was a new all-time high for the S&P
500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at
New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5% of issues on the NYSE made new
52-week highs today. That number is below
the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a
warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.
Today was a Follow-thru day indicated by a “...big gain
in rising volume...which confirms that a new uptrend is underway.” - From Investor
Business Daly.
Bollinger Bands were overbought today, but RSI is solidly
neutral for now, so no need to worry - it does not appear that a top is in.
There were some negative signs: Today, Monday, was a
statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move
exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a
statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the
time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not
all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. There were not enough
reliable indicators that were warning of a top.
The S&P 500 is 12.9% greater than its 200-dMA. The
10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell
point for this indicator (although we
never act on just one indicator.)
BOTTOM LINE
Overall, indicators remain in good shape; I’m Bullish, but cautious because the Index is stretched above its 200-dMA.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.) 
