Navigate the Stock Market: 2025

Friday, August 1, 2025

Selling Stock Positions

I cut my stock holdings back from 55% of the portfolio to about 40%. I sold XLK and SPY. Taking profits seemed prudent given today's bad jobs numbers (more on that later) and the continued decline in indicators. The biggest worry among them was the data we saw at the all-time high that suggested a correction of 10% or more was likely.

Thursday, July 31, 2025

PCE Prices ... Jobless Claims ... Chicago PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-price-increases-accelerated-in-june-amid-tariff-uncertainty-124028246.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended July 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 224,000 claims for the latest week.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-marginally-2025-07-31/

CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for the first time in four months to its highest level since March, however remained in contraction territory for the 20th consecutive month. The index jumped 6.7 points to 47.1 in July, the largest monthly increase in over a year. The latest reading was well above the forecast of 41.9.” Commentary and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/31/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-4-month-high

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6339.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.380% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Indicators blew up today; the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed downward – a bearish sign.

There were significant bear signs today:
-There was Xtreme high, unchanged-volume.
Ok, this one, by itself, isn’t significant and I know; you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

-Thursday there was a Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct either.

-Thursday there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw the first 2 days ago.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

-Breadth declined. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE dropped below 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues on the NYSE have declined over the last 2 weeks.

These are not good signs, but news was not all bad - charts are Ok for now. I drew new channels on the S&P 500 chart (shown above on the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart as solid black lines) yesterday. The new lines recognize that the S&P 500 advance has cooled some and is no longer “parabolic.” The bottom trendline is around 6300 so we don’t want to see the S&P 500 drop too far below that level.

The big worry is that 52-week, new-high data at the most recent all-time high for the S&P 500 suggested that a correction of >10% was coming. It appears to here now.

I’ll sell XLK Friday. It has a higher Beta than the S&P 500, my other trading position.

BOTTOM LINE
Concerning signs got more concerning; I’ll sell my XLK position Friday, but not if there is a big down-day, say greater than 1% on the S&P 500.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

FED Rate Decision ... ADP Employment ... Crude Inventory ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT TRUMP (EXCERPT) – DAIRY FARMERS OF AMERICA (DFA)
“America’s food security is a matter of national security, and the U.S. agricultural system behind it, which contributes over $1 trillion to our economy, is at risk. Not from drought or disease, but from a persistent and deepening labor shortage that has reached a critical inflection point... Over four decades of inconsistent immigration policies and political gridlock have created confusion — sending mixed signals to voters, farmers, and immigrant workers alike. These policies have encouraged laborers to come to America in search of fair wages through rural farm jobs, and encouraged dairy farmers to fill their critical labor needs with these experienced workers. Farmers have done so by completing the appropriate documentation, withholding taxes, and paying competitive wages — typically multiple times the federal minimum wage... Failures of the past are not corrected by creating even greater problems in the present, or worse, by using rhetoric intended to eliminate any path forward. Doing so risks food access and affordability, disrupts communities, and leaves U.S. farms and hardworking families with an uncertain future.
With a border that is now secure, this is the opportunity for our President to adopt a pragmatic workforce solution. This is the time to address what past leaders lacked the ability or will to resolve.” – Dennis Rodenbaugh, President & CEO, Dairy Farmers of America, Inc. Letter at...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-agricultural-labor-reform-essential-us-dairy-dennis-rodenbaugh-clnkc/

FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“As expected, the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would leave its key benchmark rate unchanged...Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank has yet to cut rates due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by Trump’s tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the second half of the year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/fed-holds-interest-rates-steady-what-that-means-for-your-money.html

ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via pr newswire) “
Private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the July ADP National Employment Report®...Year-over-year pay growth in July was 4.4 percent for job-stayers and 7 percent for job-changers.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-104-000-jobs-in-july-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302517308.html

CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 426.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

EIA

https://www.eia.gov/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6363.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.370% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a neutral +2 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is still moving upward – a bullish sign.

Yesterday, Tuesday, there was a Bearish Outside Reversal.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

I also noted that as of yesterday, there had been 8 out of 10-days that were up-days. That often causes some declines in the S&P 500, although it is not a high enough number to produce a sell-signal for tis indicator. Today, there were only 7 out of 10-days that were up, so this worry has been cleared for the time being.

Indicators are now neutral so I am watching carefully. August is often a down month though the actual declines are small, on average.

BOTTOM LINE
Concerning signs remain; but I won’t take action until I see more negative indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Consumer Confidence Dallas FD Services ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a bullish +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is moving upward – a bullish sign.

Indicators are ok; I am not yet concerned.

BOTTOM LINE
There are some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 28, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

It appears that tariffs could be making their way into the data. Apparel increased 0.4%, toys increased 1.8%, and household furnishings increased 1.0% for the month. All three of those categories are sensitive to tariffs with some companies, such as Nike, Mattel, Best Buy, and Walmart, already raising prices to pass along their increased costs, at least in part, to consumers. Car companies, such as Ford, are also planning to increase their prices in the second half.

WALL STREET’S BAD IDEA FOR YOUR 401(k) - Excerpt (WSJ)
“Wall Street is promoting a colossal lie. Money managers are in a desperate race to stuff illiquid, so-called private-market assets into funds anyone can buy, including your 401(k). They say we all can earn high return and low risk with nontraded “alternatives” like private equity, venture capital and private real estate. A close look at pending moves at two funds reveals how bogus this argument is—and why investors should just say no to this juggernaut of alternative assets.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-streets-big-bad-idea-for-your-401-k-f1003137?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgOzigS6enFMcqda5CLe3RDdTm7PLDAewyEVqywaa1PD6KlrDiDIiFqlLpmT4A%3D&gaa_ts=68869975&gaa_sig=aEgdNbrawNCrk5BZtBGA5lOuACPk-aQQBOl22sYrIVTotbzAqpr2-5ZOMfG2wVilE12NskuaRK5wIMLDDbUEoQ%3D%3D

THE HOTTESTS BUSINESS STRATEGY IS BUYING CRYPTO (WSJ)
“It’s the hottest trade of the summer. Companies are raising tens of billions of dollars, not to invest in their businesses or hire employees, but to purchase bitcoin and more obscure cryptocurrencies.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/crypto-treasury-e7ae573c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAguI665-hlcvtN5vYSBvTcUHsfa-8QnBaPRfl1oTIxlZ4HtKwvMpzv8I3W7BJ8%3D&gaa_ts=68869a5f&gaa_sig=mRIkBa6P-MCYpUJQkpSFmyxLmdE5Y0IeeX1CyPp-AhF1wqqAzSBdjS8mQa8EVjMsbCU9n1Ul6qZORnPDtWm7nQ%3D%3D
My cmt: What could possibly go wrong here? Invest in the company, or buy beanie babies? Hmmm...

EU – US TRADE DEAL (Euronews vis msn)
“The European Union and the United States have struck a tentative trade deal to avert a potentially devastating tariff war between two of the world's largest economies, capping a race against time before a self-imposed deadline of 1 August.
Under the agreed terms, finalised on Sunday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Scotland, the majority of EU exports bound for the American market will be subject to a 15% tariff.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/von-der-leyen-and-trump-strike-eu-us-trade-deal-with-15-tariff-for-the-bloc/ar-AA1Jo0hl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=68

HIKING TARGETS (The Street)
“-Oppenheimer raised their year-end target for the index from to 7,100 (from 5,950 in April), which would be roughly an 11% gain from current prices.
-Morgan Stanley is banking on the S&P 500 to hit 7,200 by mid-2026, which would be a 12% increase over the next 12 months or so.” Story at...
Morgan Stanley makes bold S&P 500 projection as U.S. dollar weakens

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 6390.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 14.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.408% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is moving upward – a bullish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today; Breadth remained above 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s a good sign. We hate to see new, all-time highs with collapsing breadth.

When the Index makes a new high, we always check the % of issues on the NYSE making new 52-week highs. Today’s number of 2.9% shows a very narrow advance and it is warning that a correction greater than 10% is headed our way. Now just to confuse the issue; today’s S&P 500 chart showed a strong advance late in the day to push the Index into positive territory. New-highs are sometimes slow to catch up to the index when the index is moving sharply higher late in the day, so I won’t put too much faith in this indicator, for now. This is the second warning in 5-sessions so we’ll need to pay attention.

RSI was overbought, but the Bollinger Band indicator was not. Looks like the market can go higher. I keep hearing more pundits predicting a correction. The more that do, the less likely it becomes; but we can’t avoid one forever.

BOTTOM LINE
There are some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, July 25, 2025

Durable Goods ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Driving food costs.” -Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
My cmt: I think it is silly to deport migrants who are working and supporting the US economy. I’d give working illegals temporary Green cards on the spot and require them to register with ICE within 2 months or face deportation.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.” - Thomas Sowell,

ICE DATA SHOWS LESS THAN 1% DEPORTED HAD MURDER CONVICTIONS (CBS NEWS)
“President Trump campaigned on a vow to round up the "worst of the worst" offenders among the criminals who were living illegally inside the United States. But CBS News has obtained deportation data that indicates the Trump administration's deportation push has ensnared many undocumented immigrants without violent criminal records...Only 1.8% or 2,355 of the total convictions against those criminals had to do with sex offenses. Another 1,628, or 1.2%, were for sexual assault. The number of homicide convictions totaled just 729, or 0.58%, and the number of convicted kidnappers were 536, or 0.42%. About 10,738 convictions were for assault, or 8.5%, the data showed... The CBS News-obtained document shows that 3,256 of the more than 100,000 people removed were known or suspected gang members or terrorists.” Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-ice-data-shows-less-than-1-of-deportees-had-murder-convictions/
My Cmt: This was a biased piece whose mission was to convince its readers that ICE is spinning the data. To me, the spin is by CBS News. The numbers look very high. The article notes that 1 in 200 (0.5%) have been convicted of murder. That is about 10,000 times greater than the murder rate in the US general population. (Per Google AI, in 2023, the U.S. homicide rate was approximately 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.) Even if we subtracted children from the US homicide rate, the rate of murder committed by illegals is frighteningly high when compared to the US overall rate. Looks like, the CBS reporter dislikes Trump and failed math.

DURABLE GOODS (Market Place via msn)
“Orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June, but most of the drop was tied to passenger planes, the Commerce Department said Friday. Outside of the transportation sector, orders rose 0.2%, the third straight monthly gain.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-orders-weaker-in-june-due-to-planes-business-investment-holding-up-despite-uncertainty/ar-AA1JhNsL?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6389.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.386% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today; Breadth bounced above 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s a good sign. We hate to see new, all-time highs with collapsing breadth.

When the Index makes a new high, we always check the % of issues on the NYSE making new 52-week highs. Today’s number of 3.5% was well below the average for this stat, but it was high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.

However, there were other warnings signs. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were overbought. That’s a worrying sign of a top, although I would need more top-indicator signals before I’d adjust the portfolio.

BOTTOM LINE
There were some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 24, 2025

National Activity Index ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

DEMOCRATS ATTACK GIG WORKERS (WSJ)
“Senate Democrats are breathless about Americans losing government healthcare, but they’re dead set against expanding private coverage. They’re attacking a plan to help gig workers get benefits—merely because unions won’t get a cut... Independent contractors can’t unionize under the National Labor Relations Act, so unions and the Democrats they support want to outlaw contract work...This political opposition has deterred several gig companies from offering benefits. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has pledged more than $650 million a year to fund health insurance and paid time off if lawmakers would withdraw the threat of reclassifying the company’s drivers...If not for the opposition of lawmakers who claim to value healthcare, millions of workers could receive benefits without trading their freedom to get them.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gig-workers-benefits-democrats-labor-unions-bill-cassidy-bernie-sanders-8ae57868?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhy3e-OJ1wYVE1HfK-x3XVywgOj4uonNBaMRWkrJLiigVGEe_7cC9E-K_3IBwM%3D&gaa_ts=68817314&gaa_sig=P3RQWgV9tzAP77lhJsSNhf8_mv4wDKi1HOsIc4M4DN3ZOAwW2b_wL3m24eLqWJR6SBYRHIE2JHnnOZC1H0pKUA%3D%3D

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure... The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.10 in June from -0.16 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from May, and all four categories made negative contributions in June.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/24/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-june-2025

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities...Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-labor-market-steady-jobless-claims-three-month-low-2025-07-24/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6363.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 15.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.40% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators reversed and slipped to neutral at +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread also reversed down – a bearish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today, but breadth declined. Breadth slipped below 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. In other words, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have fallen over the last 2 weeks. Other measures of breadth declined too - the number of new-52-week highs declined, but remained high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.

Yesterday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so today’s weakness is not a surprise.

One encouraging sign, the S&P 500 has not fallen below its lower trend line. Hopefully, that will continue and indicators will improve.

BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

LAWFARE AGAINST THE FED (WSJ)
“Agitators within the Trump Administration for weeks have flogged a Federal Reserve office renovation as a pretext to harass Chairman Jerome Powell. Now comes the lawfare, with a criminal perjury referral against Mr. Powell to the Department of Justice from a Member of Congress. How low can this crowd go?...The Congresswoman [Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, Florida] is trying to criminalize what at its core is an argument over monetary policy...Whatever Mr. Powell’s rhetorical inexactitude, it’s madness to create a new precedent for prosecuting officials for policy disagreements. Doing so is the road to the hyper-politicized monetary policy you’d expect in Argentina.” – The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-anna-paulina-luna-lawfare-federal-reserve-donald-trump-be289db7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhAs8QgY1cOuD9I9QmXUmXa9zjllk3mZA2Waw0geEpWASo6S0bYA2ztUc89s4M%3D&gaa_ts=688166d3&gaa_sig=_w-7ElN26PAMm542r6aLBDsVQbrhwB_xgJmSxtliYYcDL_VIpc7eqfbcyCtW1_-gBs5Qt6Wf7wQj312TJSNmUA%3D%3D

EXISTING HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Sales of previously-owned homes in the United States hit their lowest rate in nine months, according to industry data released Wednesday, as high home prices and mortgage rates weighed on the market. Existing home sales dropped by 2.7 percent last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-dip-141216401.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6359.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to Bullish at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed higher too – a bullish sign.

I noted yesterday (Tuesday), that only 2.8% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs suggesting a correction of greater than 10%. At today’s all-time high for the S&P 500, that warning was canceled; breadth broadened out and new-52-week-high numbers significantly improved. They are still below average, but good enough.

Do the indicators suggest correction fears are over? I’d say, “sort of.” A correction is coming – they always are – but for now, it appears that the correction has been postponed. Only 2 top indicators are warning of a top and they are not always reliable.

BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)