“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
“Police from Finland have detained the Russian crew of a
tanker suspected of cutting a telecommunication cable in the Baltic Sea. Finnish
authorities seized the Fitburg, a St Vincent and Grenadines-flagged cargo ship,
on Wednesday. It had been travelling from St Petersburg to Haifa, Israel.” Story
at…
Russian
crew detained after undersea cable cut in 'sabotage'
OBAMACARE – THE MONEY PIT FOR TAXPAYERS (WSJ)
“Congress may yet extend ObamaCare “enhanced” premium
subsidies. A new study shows why that would be a reckless act toward taxpayers.
Using health insurers’ mandatory filings, our study, published Friday in JAMA Health Forum, shows that
the ObamaCare individual market has become a money pit for taxpayers. In 2024
they paid nearly 80% of the premiums for subsidized plans—compared with only
30% in 2014.” - Ge Bai, professor of health policy and management at Johns
Hopkins University, and Elizabeth Plummer, professor of accounting and
medical education at Texas Christian University. Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/obamacare-is-a-money-pit-for-taxpayers-7804552c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdYmmIUVlopl7i0QDDrZNuhvryNo-MtbbdDG6Ybc4EM0UiKXAi19m_HkA0uyHk%3D&gaa_ts=6955863f&gaa_sig=fGI5LU-ZZSTVC6B5-YsSUwt3wQRtHTe8K_dzhXwNbM9_Hlnfb0KB904Gu_-OJaB_KTXxeN7rr_4-MzD4PwOP_w%3D%3D
My cmt: Premiums were “enhanced” for the Covid
pandemic. Democrats want to extend the
enhancements; for the most part, Republicans want taxpayer payments to
insurance companies to return to pre-Covid levels.
VANGUARD STOCK PREDICTION (Moneywise)
“According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected
to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years.
That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P
500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%. In other words, Vanguard’s
analysts believe future performance won’t be nearly as impressive as investors
have experienced in recent years, barring a sharp drop during COVID.” Story at…
Vanguard
reveals what could be coming for US stocks, and it’s raising alarm bells for
retirees. Here’s why and how to protect yourself
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when
others are fearful.” – Waren Buffet
MICHAEL “BIG SHORT” BURRY IS SHORTING AI (WSJ)
“Now, Burry… [Michael, “Big Short” Burry] is trying to
convince Wall Street that he can profit off a fall of the
artificial-intelligence companies Nvidia NVDA -0.36%decrease;
red down pointing triangle and Palantir
Technologies PLTR -1.81%decrease;
red down pointing triangle. The industry has underpinned the market’s rally
to new highs throughout the year, but Burry, who has mostly kept a low profile
this past decade, has emerged to pronounce there is a bubble that soon enough
will pop. The problem? He isn’t
sure when… “This bubble looks an awful lot like the dot-com bubble.” [Burry
said]. Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/michael-burry-bets-he-isnt-too-early-to-go-against-the-ai-juggernaut-5d95d21e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfsrshVAz_y77L1v92f2R7LmaCDThWRhmT3Ckdjo4FsRjNfRFZlXfFbUwIxtG8%3D&gaa_ts=6955841e&gaa_sig=5TpbUFd8FHZNNVb1irMU7INyURnHX5-54lgn1VgTacxCyOlJaC4G6LAE6bSJd3WiF25e7GxTEAUmqIatR28aOg%3D%3D
My cmt: One must feel uncomfortable to be on the long
side of a Michale Burry short. He was played by Christian Bale in the movie, “The
Big Short.”
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits for the
week ended December 27 dropped unexpectedly by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted
199,000, the lowest since the end of November…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-1-month-low-2025-12-31/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 6846 on
light volume.
-VIX rose about 4% to 14.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.163%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+7 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
I think the 10-dMA of the bull-bear spread is giving a
false bull-signal, based on what happened 10-days ago rather than today. I’ll
go with the daily bull-bear indicator spread that is now NEUTRAL.
The S&P 500 has not made it back to its upper trend
line since the end of October. That is something to watch. I’ve redrawn the
lower trendline to align with the 50-dMA. The Index is 0.6% above its 50-dMA. We
don’t want to see a drop below the 50-day.
It is clear that indicators have been falling so for now
we are watching the charts. My guess is that the S&P 500 will hold its
50-dMA, but that is only a guess. We still have 12 bull-indicators and that is
not usually associated with a market collapse. We can only watch and see if the downward
trend in the indicators continues. If the 50-day holds, the indicators become
less important.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
FED MINUTES (CNBC)
"The Federal
Reserve on Tuesday released minutes from its highly divisive meeting
earlier this month, which concluded with a vote to lower
interest rates again that appeared to be an even closer call than the
final vote indicated…“Most participants judged that further downward
adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be
appropriate if inflation declined over time as expected,” the document said. With
that, though, came misgivings over how aggressive the FOMC should be in the
future.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/fed-minutes-december-2025.html
CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key
indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago
region, has posted a significant increase. The actual figure released is 43.5,
a marked improvement over the forecasted 39.8.” Story at…
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-beats-expectations-indicating-manufacturing-sector-expansion-93CH-4425504
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as
perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs
and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in
December… On balance, consumer spending trends in 2025 moved towards cheap
thrills and necessary services and away from expensive and highly discretionary
activities." Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-fell-again-in-december-302648784.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6896 on
light volume.
-VIX rose about 1% to 14.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.126%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+10 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; continued its downward trend, a BEARISH sign.
The bull indicators outnumber the bears by more than 2 to
1 – this is a bullish sign overall.
The S&P 500 has not made it back to its upper trend
line since the end of October. That is something to watch. I’ve redrawn the
lower trendline to align with the 50-dMA. The Index is 1.4% above its 50-dMA so
for now, no problem. We don’t want to see a drop below the 50-day.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6906 on
light volume.
-VIX rose about 4% to 14.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.112%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+11 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; continued its downward trend, a BEARISH sign.
The bull indicators outnumber the bears 3 to 1 – this is
a bullish sign overall.
The S&P 500 has not made it back to its upper trend
line since the end of October. That is something to watch. The chart shows the
Index below its 50-dMA, but drawing the lower trendline is subjective. The
lower trendline is often around the 50-dMA. The Index is 1.6% above its 50-dMA
so for now, no problem. We don’t want to see a drop below the 50-day.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 3pts to 6930 on
light volume.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.60.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.130%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+12 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; continued its downward trend, a BEARISH sign. The
10-day average did show signs that it may reverse higher soon.
The bull indicators far outnumber the bears – this is a
bullish sign overall.
Only 3.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs
today, up slightly from Wednesday. The S&P 500 was down slightly from
Wednesday’s all-time-high, but close enough to an all-time-high to be considered.
That is still well below average. Although no warning signs were triggered, it
is a worrisome number. We’ll keep an eye on this.
The S&P 500 had been higher for 5 days in a row; the
S&P 500 was due for the down day Friday. It was down just a couple of
points, but it counts.
The S&P 500 has not made it back to its upper trend
line since the end of October. That is something to watch. The Index is 2%
above its 50-dMA. That’s good; we don’t want to see a drop below the 50-day.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
Q. Who are Franz Gruber and Hans Gruber and what is their
connection to Christmas? Answer Below.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped
for a second straight week, declining by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted
214,000 for the week ended December 20, the Labor Department said on Wednesday…Continued
claims fell marginally between the November and December survey weeks.” Story
at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2025-12-24/
Ans. Franz Gruber wrote “Silent Night.” Hans Gruber is
pictured above; he attempted to rob the Nakatomi Corporation on Christmas Eve,
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6932.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.135%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+14 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; resumed its downward trend, a BEARISH sign. The
10-day average did show signs that it may reverse higher soon. The bull
indicators far outnumber the bears – this is a bullish sign overall.
Only 3.3% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs
today as the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high. That is well below average.
Although no warning signs were triggered, it is a worrisome number. Volume was less
than half of the monthly average, as would be expected on Christmas Eve, but my
new-high stat is based on percentages so the low volume should not matter. We’ll
keep an eye on this when the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs.
The S&P 500 has been higher for 5 days in a row; the
S&P 500 is due for a down day.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
“In the latest blow to the US offshore wind industry, the Trump administration
announced Monday it is suspending the federal leases for all large offshore
wind projects currently under construction, citing unspecified national
security risks. It marks a major escalation in President Donald Trump’s attacks
against offshore wind, a form of energy he has long railed against. The
suspension could impact billions of dollars of investment and stall nearly six
gigawatts of new electricity set to come online in the next few years.” Story
at…
Trump
suspends all large offshore wind farms under construction, threatening
thousands of jobs and cheaper energy
SANTA IS COMING (Heritage Capital)
“The famed and popular Santa Claus Rally (SCR) begins at
the close on Tuesday and ends at the close on January 5th. There is no debating
this, contrary to what some pundits say. It is what it is. In short, stocks are
supposed to rally. If they don’t, it’s warning sign for a challenging Q1 and/or
Q2 2026. That case played out very well in 2025 with a 20% decline into the
tariff tantrum.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Opinion at
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/santa-is-coming-to-town/
GDP (WSJ)
“Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and
services produced across the economy, rose at a seasonally and
inflation-adjusted 4.3% annual rate for the July through September quarter, the
Commerce Department said Tuesday in a shutdown-delayed report. It was the
highest growth rate in two years…”
https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q3-2025-2026-6cbd079e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqe5WGq1aLtL13rLrzFon8OQhfxKwkKVKknoSZ4LqmDTXy3s5vaPSJBFqiRmHYk%3D&gaa_ts=694ad494&gaa_sig=obai3R4NAfwUTjC_M3lzg5NdY_OMkn4vEiANwfZ5oaZxDUMiYbqvFQfayK9OGstpGYVjDHT93ohx6fJJFokBIQ%3D%3D
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP
is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently
measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP
does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP
also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by
going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education
or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic
bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
DURABLE ORDERS (RTT News)
“…durable goods orders tumbled by 2.2 percent in October
after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.7 percent in September…The bigger than
expected pullback by durable goods orders came as orders for transportation
equipment plunged by 6.5 percent in October…” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3606137/u-s-durable-goods-orders-plunge-2-2-in-october-more-than-expected.aspx
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RTT News)
“A report released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday
showed industrial production in the U.S. increased by slightly more than
expected in the month of November. The Fed said industrial production rose by
0.2 percent in November…” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3606145/u-s-industrial-production-rises-0-2-in-november-slightly-more-than-expected.aspx
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as
perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs
and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1
(1985=100), from 92.9 in November.” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/?utm_term=&utm_campaign=TCB+%7C+C-Suite+Perspectives+%7C+PMAX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=7966952753&hsa_cam=22625443146&hsa_grp=&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=x&hsa_tgt=&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22631709008&gbraid=0AAAAADpIWakWEoJrEwXmyGj9KqKcuyFah&gclid=CjwKCAiAmKnKBhBrEiwAaqAnZ1mZy_fqjXuujtbd7hZRFbPCUU5C-vyGdrz07Xrp_XaVjKCvhdt1lhoC6DYQAvD_BwE
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6910.
-VIX declined about 0.6% to 14.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.159%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from
+15 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; it is flat, a NEUTRAL sign. The 10-day average did
show signs that it may reverse higher soon,
4.6% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today
as the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high. That is below average, but high
enough so that no warning signs are triggered.
Indicators remain very bullish.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
BANK OF AMERICA SELL SIGNAL (MarketWatch)
“A flow of money into stocks and more equities
participating in the bull market have triggered a sell signal that historically
has led to big pullbacks, according to a new Bank of America report. Bank of
America’s bull and bear indicator — a 0-to-10 scale only recently reconfigured
to include the impact of ETF investing and evolving hedging strategies — rose
to 8.5 from 7.9. BofA regards any reading above 8 to trigger a sell signal, and
the 16 “hits” since 2002 have seen the S&P 500 fall on average 1.4% over
the next three months.” Story at…
A
stock-market sell signal has been triggered at Bank of America. Here’s what
happens next.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6878.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.10.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.165%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the
50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are
neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the
indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Regarding the Bank of America “sell-call” in the article
above, I don’t discount calls by professionals, it’s just that my indicators
suggest that the market is heading higher. There is no point in selling too
soon. I’ll follow my indicators.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +1 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL
indication. I consider +5 to -5 the
neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above)
smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARISH sign. The 10-day
average did show signs that it may reverse higher soon,
The move higher in the daily indicators on Thursday is
the important signal at this point; not the 10-day that is still heading down.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my
invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used
to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually
by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
