Navigate the Stock Market: 2025

Friday, October 10, 2025

Sentiment ... Trump Tariffs ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

SUPREME COURT SKEPTICAL ON BANNING COUNSELING ON GENDER CONVERSION THERAPY (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Supreme Court justices voiced skepticism Tuesday that states can ban counseling that aims to change a young patient’s sexual orientation or gender identity... Justice Samuel Alito signaled he agreed, saying the Colorado law “looks like blatant viewpoint discrimination.” Justice Neil Gorsuch, another of the court’s conservatives, raised concerns that a law like Colorado’s might have prohibited therapists from affirming a gay patient’s sexual orientation during the 1970s, when medical professionals considered homosexuality to be a form of mental illness. And Justice Amy Coney Barrett pressed the state on its evidence to support its position that conversion therapy was harmful for minor patients.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/supreme-court-questions-state-bans-on-conversion-therapy-de97040c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjTctS4xAV0wvPxl7MXZsCybSzpDdQPDhrbidtveJ3HuN5o-YxCa6MURnSPOfk%3D&gaa_ts=68e946c0&gaa_sig=EZ4JI5hceWAtCMtTERZXB3qvjhrlZ6OOlWpTMTSUBY5Bg3FTCyDePH2MV7KO2rZ1lFY4goA_t3Txo-DlreRfeQ%3D%3D
My cmt: The Supreme Court’s conservatives aren’t as predictable as some think. They are tasked with interpreting the Constitution and sometimes, as Justice Scalia stated years ago, those interpretations go against the personal beliefs of the Justices. For example, Scalia said he abhorred flag-burning, but he affirmed the right of protestors to burn a flag under free-speech protections.

UNIV MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment moved sideways this month. At 55 index points, sentiment is virtually unchanged from September... Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors. Meanwhile, interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

TRUMP THREATS TANK THE MARKETS (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to slap a “massive increase of Tariffs” on Chinese products imported into the United States to “financially counter” new export controls that China imposed on rare earths from that country.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-china-tariffs-rare-earths.html
my cmt: The latest is that Trump says 100% tariffs go on Chinese imports on 1 November. Here we go again – it’s trade war time.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 2.7% to 6753.
-VIX rose about 32% to 21.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.059% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -3 to -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down – a Bearsh sign.

Tom Lee on CNBC this afternoon said that the move in the VIX today was the 51^st highest ever and that put it in the top 1% of all time daily moves. He said this will be a buying opportunity. Big jumps in VIX usually signal a good interim bottom, but this may not be the bottom yet.

I commented yesterday that one of my more esoteric indicators calculates the standard deviation of daily moves in the S&P 500. When those moves become too similar (usually a very calm market) it flashes a top-warning because standard deviation is small. That’s what happened Thursday.

Today, Friday, we saw the inverse of this indicator. When the standard-deviation jumps high enough, it becomes the “Panic Indicator.” The issue with the panic indicator is that it can signal a top or bottom. It is a bottom indicator when the markets have been in decline and the big move in standard deviation signals a flush out of weak hands. That was the case back on 1 August when the Panic Indicator was activated 4-days after the top. That turned out to be a buying opportunity, although I didn’t believe it at the time. The Panic Indicator is a top-indicator when the big move comes at or near a top especially when there is a negative surprise. I think today’s move would qualify as a top-indicator; it is only 2-days after the top and there were a lot of other signs too.

Friday there was a Hindenburg Omen. It is a negative indicator in my 50-indicator ensemble.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. No cluster yet, but there were plenty of other confirming indicators with the indicator spread falling from -3 to -13. Still, there were some hopeful signs.

Bollinger Bands were oversold suggesting a possible bottom to some. RSI was not oversold and I use these signals together. RSI is close to oversold, but not there yet. I will ignore the Bollinger Band signal for now, although it is included in the 50-Indicator Spread charted above.

Friday the S&P 500 broke thru its lower trend line, but it did close 0.3% above its 50-dMA. The 50-day is a good line of support. This time, I don’t think it will hold.

Friday was a statistically significant, down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. After a 2.7% down day, I think it is likely that Monday will be up, but that’s not clear. Investors may worry over the weekend and sell more on Monday. That is often the case.

Based on breadth at the all-time high we saw Wednesday, the most likely correction outcome would be for a decline not greater than 10%.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Bearish, but is not time to panic. The S&P 500 has fallen 3%. If the correction follows prior trends, it is not likely to fall more than 7% further. It is hard to time a small <10% correction so I will sit tight for now. There are still 7 Bull-indicators. If that number were to fall to zero, I would have to reconsider. As a retiree, I have been cautious at 50% invested in stocks. I have cash available and I will be a stock buyer if I can identify a bottom.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, October 9, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued to move higher – a Bullish sign. The 10-day has been flopping back and forth and without much direction so the 10-day isn’t helping yet. If the direction is sustained longer perhaps we can believe it.

One of my more esoteric indicators calculates the standard deviation of daily moves in the S&P 500. When those moves become too similar (usually a very calm market) it flashes a top-warning. That indicator warned today. It is frequently correct, but unfortunately, it is not a timely indicator. The Top could be now, or as much as a month away. With this indicator and others warning recently, the top could have been yesterday.

We saw a Bearish Outside Reversal Day Tuesday. Now, we have another one Thursday.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

I wrote yesterday 8 of the last 10-days have been up, so it is not surprising that the S&P 500 declined Thursday. As of Thursday, there still have been 8 up-days in the last 10. That’s suggesting a down-day Friday, but it is not yet giving a top warning.

I don’t yet have enough indicators issuing top-warnings so I won’t make any changes to the portfolio. Based on breadth at the all-time high we saw Wednesday, if the markets do go into correction mode, the most likely outcome would be for a decline not greater than 10%.

It still appears that the S&P 500 will drift back towards its lower trendline.

BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral. Let’s see how the S&P 500 performs over the next few days.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

FED Minutes ... Consumer Credit ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from Zero to +1 (1 more Bull indicator and Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; turned higher – a Bullish sign, but just barely. The 10-day has been flopping back and forth and without much direction so the 10-day isn’t helping yet.

On Monday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

There was high, unchanged volume Wednesday. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are now mixed. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

The Index closed 11.8% above its 200-day moving average. 10% to 15% implies sell. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks. This can get to 20% above the 200-day, but that is a very rare occurrence.

8 of the last 10-days have been up, but that is not yet suggesting a reversal. If Thursday is an up-day, it would be unusual enough to give us another bear-signal.

Sentiment improved and is now neutral.

There has been a regular bubble-discussion on CNBC regarding whether the markets are currently in a bubble. That discussion isn’t as informative as it might seem. If there is a bubble, markets can still go higher. At major tops, my indicators have given top-warnings and I have reduced stock-holdings to avoid major declines; I enjoy the bubble discussions, but I don't act on them.

Repeating from yesterday: All-in-all, it appears that the S&P 500 will drift back towards its lower trendline. That is partly a guess since the indicator spread remains neutral and either up or down would be in line with my indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish to neutral. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

ROBERT REICH SOUNDS ALARM (Huffington Post)
“Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich on Monday warned the United States could be heading toward ‘either martial law or civil war.’
In his latest Substack newsletter, the former Bill Clinton Cabinet member noted President Donald Trump’s talk of invoking the Insurrection Act could see him deploying troops domestically “despite any court orders stopping him.” Story at...
Robert Reich Sounds The Alarm On Trump Fear That’s ‘Unfolding Very Rapidly’
My cmt: These sorts of fears seem overblown. Will Trump fail to follow court orders? Even if he did, the military is trained not to follow illegal orders, at least they were when I was an Army officer. If there is a court order in place, the military won’t go against it. That calls into question the current Hegseth policy of attacking civilian boats in international waters because intelligence says they are drug-boats. This is probably illegal, but it is a gray area for the time being – courts have yet to rule. I wonder how the pilots feel?

MOODY’S SAYS THERE WAS NO JOB GROWTH LAST MONTH (Fortune)
“Everyone from Wall Street to the Federal Reserve knows America’s labor market is weakening—adding just 22,000 jobs according to the BLS’s latest release for August—but are unsure by how much.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a note over the weekend that data from Revelio Labs, which scrapes info from professional networking sites like LinkedIn to estimate jobs growth, shows that employment increased by some 60,000 roles in September...“Averaging the Revelio and ADP employment estimates for September suggests that there was essentially no job growth during the month...The bottom line is that not having the BLS jobs data is a serious problem for assessing the health of the economy and making good policy decisions. But the private sources of jobs data are admirably filling the information gap, at least for now. And this data shows that the job market is weak and getting weaker.” Story at...
America saw ‘essentially no job growth’ last month, warns Moody’s, and any roles added were in three wealthy states

1999 ALL OVER AGAIN (Seeking Alpha)
“Current market conditions feel like it’s 1999, according to Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment Corporation founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder and board member. During a CNBC interview, Tudor Jones said that while this comparison to the dot-com bubble period wasn’t made lightly, “all the ingredients are in place” for a similar market environment.” Story at...
Paul Tudor Jones: ‘It feels like 1999’ as ingredients are in place for a dot-com bubble environment
My cmt: Jones noted that during the 1999 dot.com bubble the S&P 500 topped in March.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 6715.
-VIX rose about 5% to 17.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.127% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +4 to Zero (equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; turned down again – a Bearish sign.

Sentiment has become so bearish that it is now sending a bullish signal. That seems counter intuitive, but this is a contrarian indicator. When too many investors are bearish, it may be near a bottom. This time though, we need to be wary regarding this indicator. Traders have been watching the same thing I have seen – markets have been up 7 days in a row. That is a rarity and traders have been betting that a down-day is overdue for the last 3 or 4-days. Sometimes the bears are right as they were today.

Tuesday was Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.

One of my breadth measures, (10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE) turned negative again today. Internals and indicators have not shown a lot of strength while the major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.) have been steadily climbing for the last 3-weeks.

All-in-all, it appears that the S&P 500 will drift back towards its lower trendline. That is partly a guess since the indicator spread remains neutral and either up or down would be in line with my indicators.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish to neutral. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 6, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

SCHUMER’S HYPOCRACY
“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)

TURLEY BLOG EXCERPT
“Hashmi [Ghazala Firdous Hashmi, candidate for Virginia’s next lieutenant governor] is continuing the Democratic narrative that democracy is dying in America and tyranny is on the rise. It was the mantra before the last election when Republicans secured control of both houses and the White House. Despite that failure, Democrats are doubling down on rage rhetoric and unhinged claims... Some will hear such inflammatory comments as a license to take extreme actions, including violence.” – Jonathon Turley, Turley holds the Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at The George Washington University Law School, where he teaches torts, criminal procedure, and constitutional law.
https://jonathanturley.org/2025/10/03/rip-constitution-democratic-candidate-for-virginia-lt-governor-holds-startling-rally/#more-236564

TRUMP CLAIMS U.S. CAN GROW ITS WAY OUT OF DEBT – NOT SO FAST SAYS RAY DALIO (Fortune)
“We are becoming a country that is so rich, so powerful...With the kind of growth we have now, the debt is very low relatively speaking. You grow yourself out of that debt.” – Donald Trump
“President Donald Trump’s assertion that U.S. growth can tame debt echoes what Ray Dalio has called the most dangerous phase of a debt cycle: when leaders mistake prosperity for immunity.” Story at...
Trump says the U.S. can grow its way out of $37 trillion in debt. Ray Dalio’s debt-cycle research says not so fast
My cmt: Grow out of debt? Every President from Reagan to now has made that claim. Has it worked? Since 1980 the US has gone from near zero debt to $37-trillion. Inconceivable!

HOW TO MEASURE A BUBBLE (Felder Report)
“Ian Harnett argues, the current [AI] bubble may be approaching its ‘endgame.’ He writes, ‘Until recently, the missing ingredient was the rapid build-out of physical capital. This is now firmly in place, echoing the capex boom seen in the late-1990s bubble in telecommunications, media and technology [TMT] stocks. That scaling of the internet and mobile telephony was central to sustaining ‘blue sky’ earnings expectations and extreme valuations, but it also led to the TMT bust.’” From...
https://thefelderreport.com/2025/10/04/how-do-you-measure-a-bubble/

PROMISED RECESSION...SO WHERE IS IT? (Real Investment Advice)
“If the recession scenario plays out, equity valuations will likely compress, earnings estimates will fall, and risk assets will reprice lower...
...If the no-recession scenario materializes, markets may not be “all clear” either. Corrections occur annually and can impact portfolio performance and investor psychology...The S&P 500 is trading at multiples historically reserved for periods of strong, broad-based growth, leaving little margin of safety. Even modest disappointments could trigger corrections.
I always return to risk management here. As I’ve written many times, investing is not about making bold predictions but instead aligning portfolios to probabilities, protecting against the downside, and participating in the upside when it comes.
Today, that means remaining cautious even as markets cheer new highs. It means trimming exposure where valuations are stretched, holding a healthy allocation to cash and fixed income, and being selective in equity exposure. It means acknowledging that both outcomes—recession and no recession—are plausible and positioning accordingly.” Lance Roberts. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/promised-recession-so-where-is-it/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 6740.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.158% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
No change from Friday: Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained flat – a Neutral sign.

There was a lot of “bubble talk” today on CNBC and also on the internet. Understandably so, valuations are stretched. That doesn’t mean they can’t stretch farther. When the S&P 500 made a new high today, 6.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is about the 5-year average, so that’s good news.

If investors had decided that valuations were too high and it was time to sell, we would see the markets narrowing. When valuations are too high, investors buy quality, i.e., more money gets concentrated in fewer stocks.

The Index closed 11.7% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks.

The S&P 500 has had 7 up-days in a row. As previously noted, that sort of action suggests a down-day Tuesday. (I’ve been saying that awhile, but the market keeps going up.) We also note that 7 of the last 10-days have been up and 14 in the last 20-days, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.

I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 3, 2025

ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“What if I persuaded my caucus to say I’m going to shut the government down, I am going to not pay our bills unless I get my way? It’s a politics of idiocy, of confrontation, of paralysis.” – Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) complaining about the Republican led shutdown in 2013. (from CNN)

DO DEMOCRATS SUPPORT GIVING HEALTH COVEREGE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS? (Fox)
"Raise your hand if your government plan would provide coverage for undocumented immigrants," NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie asked while moderating the June 2019 debate followed by all ten Democrats on stage raising their hands.” Story at...
Unearthed debate clip goes viral against Dems as illegal immigrant health coverage becomes top issue

WHY QATAR CHANGED COURSE ON HAMAS (WSJ – Excerpt)
“It is too early to know if there will be an agreement to end the war in Gaza, and if so whether it will be implemented. But there is reason for President Trump’s optimism that Hamas might release hostages, give up its weapons and leave power. Change is afoot not in Gaza but in Doha—the government of Qatar is pressuring its protégés to accept the deal.
The regime, which thwarted the last hostage deal, changed its mind because the war has reached its home. After the Israel Defense Forces operated in five Muslim capitals—Gaza, Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a, and Tehran—it hit Doha...
Qatar is part of the problem, not the solution. Israel’s decision to strike there with quiet American approval marked a crucial moment in the war. It signaled that between the West and fundamentalist terror one must choose a side.” - Amit Segal, chief political commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News and author of “A Call at 4 AM: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions that Shaped Israeli Politics,” forthcoming Oct. 14.” – Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-qatar-changed-course-on-hamas-20dff709?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgCACqY7RxOWA5Caetac88I-K8ojXycakjn5K9M_4lcgml2rFWoAnfzcl9WrSU%3D&gaa_ts=68e01907&gaa_sig=_KQ0ZfKdi-8rdNSgl3nNGg0e0oFvjBBxpPWMCUSoM0M_y2zY-ptEAm8zjJG0bNaY_HOixPsGLa_i1n6aHG2_hQ%3D%3D

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010... Commentary in general indicated moderate or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/september/

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING / PAYROLL REPORT – Not available due to Government shutdown.
“The release of U.S. jobs data typically has traders and investors glued to their screens at 8:30 am waiting for the all-important numbers. This Friday, however, is giving some a sudden surplus of free time along with the problem of trying to piece together the economic jigsaw puzzle from other sources.” From Reuters at...
https://www.reuters.com/business/payroll-data-ice-gives-wall-street-newfound-free-time-big-problem-reading-2025-10-03/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was little changed (up 1 pt) at 6716.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.121% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), and remained a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is now flat – a Neutral sign.

At today’s high, the S&P 500 was 11.9% above its 200-dMA. The Index closed 11.4% above its 200-day. For my purposes, when the S&P 500 is 12% above its 200-dMA, it is too stretched and issues a bearish signal. I don’t act on one signal, but it does warn that it may not be a good time to add new money to stocks.

At the high today, the S&P 500 was at its upper trendline. That is another issue that is a concern when considering adding to stock holdings.

There was another up-day Friday, though just barely. The S&P 500 has had 6 straight days up. As noted yesterday, that sort of action suggests a down-day Monday. We also note that 7 of the last 10 have been up, but that is not enough to suggest a more significant reversal.

Same as yesterday: The S&P 500 made a new high today. 5.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. This is below average, but not enough for this indicator to send a correction warning.

I’m fully invested, but I have not seen enough to put any additional cash holdings into stocks. “Cash” in my money market is still earning 3.9%. So, the trick is to remain patient.

BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)