“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index was up 3% in September from a year ago, accelerating from an annual rate of 2.3% in April.
Before April, inflation was following a downward trajectory that was on track to slowing back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“But higher tariffs, highly restrictive immigration policy, and de-globalization more broadly have upended that outlook, and inflation appears likely to remain stubbornly high for the foreseeable future” – Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics. Story at…
https://fortune.com/2025/11/23/affordability-crisis-inflation-outlook-trump-tariffs-immigration-crackdown-prices/
My cmt: Trump started tariffs in April.
“Nvidia stock trades for 24 times next year's earnings, which is cheaper than its big tech peers like Microsoft and Apple, which trade for a respective 25 and 30 times next-year's earnings.” Analysis at…
Should You Buy Nvidia Stock After It Notched 30% Gains in 2025? Wall Street Is Providing a Nearly Unanimous Answer.
My cmt: The PE for the S&P 500 is about 24 on next year’s earnings. Could be time to add Nvidia if you don’t own it.
“As of the closing bell on Nov. 26, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E was 40.20, which is a stone's throw from the late October peak of 41.20 for the current bull market. This is only the third time since 1871 that we've observed the Shiller P/E crest 40 -- it peaked at 44.19 in December 1999 and topped out a few hundredths above 40 just prior to the 2022 bear market taking shape -- and the sixth time in almost 155 years that it's surpassed 30 during a continuous bull market. This is where historical precedent comes into play. Following the previous five instances where the Shiller P/E topped 30, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and/or Dow Jones Industrial Average all declined by 20% to 89%.” Story at…
Wall Street Is Set to Enter 2026 With the 2nd Priciest Stock Market in 155 Years -- and History Offers a Dire Warning for Investors
“Operating conditions in the US manufacturing sector improved for a fourth successive month in November. A solid rise in production and a further increase in employment was reported as confidence in the outlook strengthened… Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface. The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion…Spence continues, “In November, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with pullbacks in supplier deliveries, new orders and employment leading to the 0.5-percentage point decrease of the Manufacturing PMI®.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/november/
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6813.
-VIX rose about 5% to 17.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.088% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. See note above on Nvidia. It is down about 10% from its high. If it continues to fall I may add more.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
I’m bullish; I am now fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
