Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Police from Finland have detained the Russian crew of a tanker suspected of cutting a telecommunication cable in the Baltic Sea. Finnish authorities seized the Fitburg, a St Vincent and Grenadines-flagged cargo ship, on Wednesday. It had been travelling from St Petersburg to Haifa, Israel.” Story at…
Russian crew detained after undersea cable cut in 'sabotage'
 
OBAMACARE – THE MONEY PIT FOR TAXPAYERS (WSJ)
“Congress may yet extend ObamaCare “enhanced” premium subsidies. A new study shows why that would be a reckless act toward taxpayers. Using health insurers’ mandatory filings, our study, published Friday in JAMA Health Forum, shows that the ObamaCare individual market has become a money pit for taxpayers. In 2024 they paid nearly 80% of the premiums for subsidized plans—compared with only 30% in 2014.” - Ge Bai, professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University, and Elizabeth Plummer, professor of accounting and medical education at Texas Christian University. Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/obamacare-is-a-money-pit-for-taxpayers-7804552c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdYmmIUVlopl7i0QDDrZNuhvryNo-MtbbdDG6Ybc4EM0UiKXAi19m_HkA0uyHk%3D&gaa_ts=6955863f&gaa_sig=fGI5LU-ZZSTVC6B5-YsSUwt3wQRtHTe8K_dzhXwNbM9_Hlnfb0KB904Gu_-OJaB_KTXxeN7rr_4-MzD4PwOP_w%3D%3D
My cmt: Premiums were “enhanced” for the Covid pandemic.  Democrats want to extend the enhancements; for the most part, Republicans want taxpayer payments to insurance companies to return to pre-Covid levels.
 
VANGUARD STOCK PREDICTION (Moneywise)
“According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years. That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%. In other words, Vanguard’s analysts believe future performance won’t be nearly as impressive as investors have experienced in recent years, barring a sharp drop during COVID.” Story at…
Vanguard reveals what could be coming for US stocks, and it’s raising alarm bells for retirees. Here’s why and how to protect yourself
 
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” – Waren Buffet
 
MICHAEL “BIG SHORT” BURRY IS SHORTING AI (WSJ)
“Now, Burry… [Michael, “Big Short” Burry] is trying to convince Wall Street that he can profit off a fall of the artificial-intelligence companies Nvidia NVDA -0.36%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Palantir Technologies PLTR -1.81%decrease; red down pointing triangle. The industry has underpinned the market’s rally to new highs throughout the year, but Burry, who has mostly kept a low profile this past decade, has emerged to pronounce there is a bubble that soon enough will pop. The problem? He isn’t sure when… “This bubble looks an awful lot like the dot-com bubble.” [Burry said].  Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/michael-burry-bets-he-isnt-too-early-to-go-against-the-ai-juggernaut-5d95d21e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfsrshVAz_y77L1v92f2R7LmaCDThWRhmT3Ckdjo4FsRjNfRFZlXfFbUwIxtG8%3D&gaa_ts=6955841e&gaa_sig=5TpbUFd8FHZNNVb1irMU7INyURnHX5-54lgn1VgTacxCyOlJaC4G6LAE6bSJd3WiF25e7GxTEAUmqIatR28aOg%3D%3D
My cmt: One must feel uncomfortable to be on the long side of a Michale Burry short. He was played by Christian Bale in the movie, “The Big Short.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ended December 27 dropped unexpectedly by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000, the lowest since the end of November…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-1-month-low-2025-12-31/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 6846 on light volume.
-VIX rose about 4% to 14.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.163% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +7 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
I think the 10-dMA of the bull-bear spread is giving a false bull-signal, based on what happened 10-days ago rather than today. I’ll go with the daily bull-bear indicator spread that is now NEUTRAL.
 
The S&P 500 has not made it back to its upper trend line since the end of October. That is something to watch. I’ve redrawn the lower trendline to align with the 50-dMA. The Index is 0.6% above its 50-dMA. We don’t want to see a drop below the 50-day.
 
It is clear that indicators have been falling so for now we are watching the charts. My guess is that the S&P 500 will hold its 50-dMA, but that is only a guess. We still have 12 bull-indicators and that is not usually associated with a market collapse.  We can only watch and see if the downward trend in the indicators continues. If the 50-day holds, the indicators become less important.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.