“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
Trump suspends all large offshore wind farms under construction, threatening thousands of jobs and cheaper energy
“The famed and popular Santa Claus Rally (SCR) begins at the close on Tuesday and ends at the close on January 5th. There is no debating this, contrary to what some pundits say. It is what it is. In short, stocks are supposed to rally. If they don’t, it’s warning sign for a challenging Q1 and/or Q2 2026. That case played out very well in 2025 with a 20% decline into the tariff tantrum.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Opinion at
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/santa-is-coming-to-town/
“Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 4.3% annual rate for the July through September quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday in a shutdown-delayed report. It was the highest growth rate in two years…”
https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q3-2025-2026-6cbd079e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqe5WGq1aLtL13rLrzFon8OQhfxKwkKVKknoSZ4LqmDTXy3s5vaPSJBFqiRmHYk%3D&gaa_ts=694ad494&gaa_sig=obai3R4NAfwUTjC_M3lzg5NdY_OMkn4vEiANwfZ5oaZxDUMiYbqvFQfayK9OGstpGYVjDHT93ohx6fJJFokBIQ%3D%3D
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
“…durable goods orders tumbled by 2.2 percent in October after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.7 percent in September…The bigger than expected pullback by durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment plunged by 6.5 percent in October…” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3606137/u-s-durable-goods-orders-plunge-2-2-in-october-more-than-expected.aspx
“A report released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday showed industrial production in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of November. The Fed said industrial production rose by 0.2 percent in November…” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3606145/u-s-industrial-production-rises-0-2-in-november-slightly-more-than-expected.aspx
“Confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month as perceptions of business conditions were negative, and apprehensions about jobs and income deepened. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.8 points in December to 89.1 (1985=100), from 92.9 in November.” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/?utm_term=&utm_campaign=TCB+%7C+C-Suite+Perspectives+%7C+PMAX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=7966952753&hsa_cam=22625443146&hsa_grp=&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=x&hsa_tgt=&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22631709008&gbraid=0AAAAADpIWakWEoJrEwXmyGj9KqKcuyFah&gclid=CjwKCAiAmKnKBhBrEiwAaqAnZ1mZy_fqjXuujtbd7hZRFbPCUU5C-vyGdrz07Xrp_XaVjKCvhdt1lhoC6DYQAvD_BwE
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6910.
-VIX declined about 0.6% to 14.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.159% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped from +15 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it is flat, a NEUTRAL sign. The 10-day average did show signs that it may reverse higher soon,
I’m bullish and fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
