Payroll Report … Retail Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“A very sad thing happened last night [Sunday night] in Hollywood. Rob Reiner, a tortured and struggling, but once very talented movie director and comedy star, has passed away, together with his wife, Michele, reportedly due to the anger he caused others through his massive, unyielding, and incurable affliction with a mind crippling disease known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, sometimes referred to as TDS…He was known to have driven people CRAZY by his raging obsession of President Donald J. Trump, with his obvious paranoia reaching new heights as the Trump Administration surpassed all goals and expectations of greatness, and with the Golden Age of America upon us, perhaps like never before… May Rob and Michele rest in peace!” – Donald Trump.
 
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Vernon Wormer, Dean of Faber College.
 
“He [Trump] knows no shame. A total jackass.” - Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader.
 
“This is a family tragedy, not about politics or political enemies. Many families deal with a family member with drug addiction and mental health issues…It’s incredibly difficult and should be met with empathy especially when it ends in murder.” - Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican Representative from Georgia.
 
MANUFACTURING’S LAST BOOM WILL BE HARD TO REPEAT (WSJ)
“Many Americans believe that the heyday of manufacturing was the natural order of things, and they have pinned their hopes for a vibrant new middle class on a manufacturing revival. Politicians of all stripes invoke this moment as something lost and easily restored via tariffs or buying American.
It cannot…The industrial golden age was born in unique conditions that dissipated almost as quickly as they appeared. Global competitors had been bombed into submission, energy was dirt cheap, and American unions could demand concessions without fear of losing jobs to foreign rivals. These were accidents of history, not features of capitalism that can be recaptured with the right policies.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-manufacturing-onshoring-history-988375c3?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeLqey0RQYal4wxCSV3JNPIq-wk93CtJzcrmyP7K7KCw5jl0uERV0G_ngrFB6k%3D&gaa_ts=6940d3d9&gaa_sig=fExiTEM9yxpiXSTjSPfIkSRZfmCGimgQJAo-ARlHDjr2IWKqYRJrKoUnj0t2us_S-bQq65agdGZojhMd-YVgkQ%3D%3D
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NBC News)
“The United States shed 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 jobs in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, lifting a monthslong fog that had shrouded the labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/jobs-report-november-october-payrolls-rcna249325
 
RETAIL SALES
Sales at U.S. retailers and restaurants were unchanged in October from September as consumers moderated their spending amid worries about higher prices and other economic uncertainties after splurging over the summer.
Excluding sales at motor vehicle and auto parts outlets, sales rose 0.4…” Story at…
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/retail-sales-unchanged-october-shoppers-moderated-spending-due-128448208
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6800.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 16.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.147% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARISH sign. 
 
I continue to watch the lower trend line of the S&P 500 index. That level is usually around the 50-dMA. I’ve redrawn the lower trendline in the above chart to match the current level of the 50-dMA. The S&P 500 is still 0.5% above its 50-dMA so there is no need to panic about the slow decline we have seen recently. So far, this looks like a normal retreat to the lower trendline.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.