“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
THE MINNESOTA SOMALI FRAUD (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Some 86 individuals have been charged with defrauding Medicaid and the Federal Child Nutrition Program in Minnesota—yes, literally stealing lunch money from kids…
In one alleged scheme, the outfit Feeding Our Future recruited individuals to set up a network of sham companies and sites that claimed to feed children in the pandemic. The scammers then submitted false invoices and fake attendance rosters to the state. One roster swiped names from a website called “www.listofrandomnames.com.”
After state officials flagged suspect filings, Feeding Our Future cried racial discrimination and the money kept flowing, according to the federal indictment. Individuals in the network then laundered the money to buy luxury vehicles, residential and commercial real estate in Minnesota, real estate in Kenya and Turkey, and other extravagances…In another scheme, a 28-year-old woman allegedly launched a company, Smart Therapy, that claimed to provide one-on-one behavioral therapy to autistic children. She employed relatives with no formal education and recruited parents to enroll their non-autistic kids in her therapy sessions by paying them kickbacks of up to $1,500 a month per child…In another indictment, eight individuals this fall were charged with fraudulently billing Medicaid to help recovering addicts find stable housing…We reported on the Biden Administration’s Medicaid waivers that let states use federal funds to pay for housing, food, transportation, sports fees and even Native American herbal remedies and exorcisms. The Biden team wanted to give states more federal dollars to spend on social services without having Congress appropriate the money…Democrats won’t acknowledge fraud because they want more Americans on the dole. Welfare is central to their political business model. Republicans who make this scandal about immigration are missing the point—and missing an opportunity to educate Americans about the entitlement state grift.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/minnesota-welfare-fraud-feeding-our-future-smart-therapy-immigration-entitlement-state-1af9cce6?mod=editorials_article_pos10
“Some 86 individuals have been charged with defrauding Medicaid and the Federal Child Nutrition Program in Minnesota—yes, literally stealing lunch money from kids…
In one alleged scheme, the outfit Feeding Our Future recruited individuals to set up a network of sham companies and sites that claimed to feed children in the pandemic. The scammers then submitted false invoices and fake attendance rosters to the state. One roster swiped names from a website called “www.listofrandomnames.com.”
After state officials flagged suspect filings, Feeding Our Future cried racial discrimination and the money kept flowing, according to the federal indictment. Individuals in the network then laundered the money to buy luxury vehicles, residential and commercial real estate in Minnesota, real estate in Kenya and Turkey, and other extravagances…In another scheme, a 28-year-old woman allegedly launched a company, Smart Therapy, that claimed to provide one-on-one behavioral therapy to autistic children. She employed relatives with no formal education and recruited parents to enroll their non-autistic kids in her therapy sessions by paying them kickbacks of up to $1,500 a month per child…In another indictment, eight individuals this fall were charged with fraudulently billing Medicaid to help recovering addicts find stable housing…We reported on the Biden Administration’s Medicaid waivers that let states use federal funds to pay for housing, food, transportation, sports fees and even Native American herbal remedies and exorcisms. The Biden team wanted to give states more federal dollars to spend on social services without having Congress appropriate the money…Democrats won’t acknowledge fraud because they want more Americans on the dole. Welfare is central to their political business model. Republicans who make this scandal about immigration are missing the point—and missing an opportunity to educate Americans about the entitlement state grift.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/minnesota-welfare-fraud-feeding-our-future-smart-therapy-immigration-entitlement-state-1af9cce6?mod=editorials_article_pos10
My cmt: All but a handful of those indicted were Somali.
TRUMP PARDONS COCAINE JUAN (WSJ -Excerpt)
“President Trump, like other politicians, sometimes does something unpopular to please his base. But what is the audience for Mr. Trump’s pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández? He was sentenced in 2024 to 45 years in prison, after a federal jury in New York found him guilty of participating in a conspiracy to traffic 400 tons of cocaine to the U.S.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/juan-orlando-hernandez-pardon-donald-trump-drug-trafficking-honduras-49640f5c?mod=editorials_more_article_pos18
My cmt: We’re killing a few drug runners on the high seas and pardoning king-pins? Maybe wants to build a hotel in Honduras.
“President Trump, like other politicians, sometimes does something unpopular to please his base. But what is the audience for Mr. Trump’s pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández? He was sentenced in 2024 to 45 years in prison, after a federal jury in New York found him guilty of participating in a conspiracy to traffic 400 tons of cocaine to the U.S.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/juan-orlando-hernandez-pardon-donald-trump-drug-trafficking-honduras-49640f5c?mod=editorials_more_article_pos18
My cmt: We’re killing a few drug runners on the high seas and pardoning king-pins? Maybe wants to build a hotel in Honduras.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6847.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.170% (compared to about this time prior market day).
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6847.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.170% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +16 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread value was adjusted down by 1.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +16 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread value was adjusted down by 1.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
Repeating:
The strong move higher in the daily indicators and the 10-day spread strongly suggests market weakness is over. The market may be well primed for a Christmas rally.
The strong move higher in the daily indicators and the 10-day spread strongly suggests market weakness is over. The market may be well primed for a Christmas rally.
The S&P 500 was due for a down day since 9 of the prior 10 days had been up-days. Markets don’t go up forever, so Monday’s down-day was expected and is good for the market. As of today, 8 of the last 10 days have been up. This is a moving average so on each new-day, the last day in the 10-day series is dropped. The last 4 days in the series have been up. This means that the S&P 500 could have 5 more consecutive up-days before this indicator flashes sell again.
The S&P 500 is 0.3% below its all-time high.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
I’m bullish and fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
ETFs have been updated for splits.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
ETFs have been updated for splits.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
