Bankruptcies Rise ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Michael Burry on Tuesday warned that the U.S. stock markets could be in for several “bad years,” explaining why he decided to deregister his hedge fund in November. On the “Against The Rules” podcast, “The Big Short” legend noted that it could be a longer bear market this time around – longer than the one in 2000, which lasted nearly 31 months.” Story at…
Michael Burry Warns Of ‘Number Of Bad Years’ For US Stock Market: ‘I Think The Whole Thing’s Just Going To Come Down’
 
BANKRUPTCIES RISE (Newsweek)
“According to the latest quarterly report from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, bankruptcy filings rose 10.6 percent in the 12 months that ended September 30 compared to the previous year. Business filings ticked up 5.6 percent, while nonbusiness filings soared 10.8 percent, with the combined total of 557,376 marking the highest tally for the yearlong stretch since 2020.” Story at…
US bankruptcy filings surge
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6829.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.092% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. See note yesterday on Nvidia. It is down about 10% from its high. If it continues to fall I may add more.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +7 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.9% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish; I am now fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.