ADP Employment … ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
DECEMBER IS SUPPOSED TO BE UP (Heritage Capital)
“For all the talk of a late year 10% swoon, the S&P 500 is but two days away from the old highs. And remember, all those folks who panic sold during the tariff tantrum have been chasing stocks higher and higher and higher. And now, there is only have one month left to make up for their catastrophic mistakes. Lest you think all is back to rainbows and unicorns, I still have some issues with the market. I do not think it just launches without looking back right here. But I remain convinced that Dow 50,000 is coming in Q1 2026.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at…
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/thanksgiving-rally-delivers-december-supposed-to-be-up/
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (Yahoo Finance)
“US private employers lost 32,000 positions in November, with job creation seemingly locked in a standstill, according to the private payroll processor ADP. The firm’s revised data showed a gain of 47,000 jobs in October, coming off losses in September and August. Job creation has essentially been flat in the second half of this year, ADP said, and small businesses in particular appeared to struggle in November.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-private-payrolls-dropped-32000-positions-last-month-in-slowing-job-market-133210474.html
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PRNewswire)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025.” Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-52-6-november-2025-ism-services-pmi-report-302630958.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6850.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.063% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. See note yesterday on Nvidia. It is down about 10% from its high. If it continues to fall I may add more.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +9 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The strong move higher in the daily indicators and the 10-day spread strongly suggests market weakness is over. If so, the market may be well primed for a Christmas rally. At the bottom, the S&P 500 never reached its 200-dMA; however it did manage to bounce higher from its 100-dMA.
 
8 of the last 10 days have been up-days so we can expect a down-day tomorrow or soon. Indicators are strong enough to suggest any weakness should be relatively short-lived.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.6% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.