Existing Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Just getting to posting the blog; it’s been very busy.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
BANK OF AMERICA SELL SIGNAL (MarketWatch)
“A flow of money into stocks and more equities participating in the bull market have triggered a sell signal that historically has led to big pullbacks, according to a new Bank of America report. Bank of America’s bull and bear indicator — a 0-to-10 scale only recently reconfigured to include the impact of ETF investing and evolving hedging strategies — rose to 8.5 from 7.9. BofA regards any reading above 8 to trigger a sell signal, and the 16 “hits” since 2002 have seen the S&P 500 fall on average 1.4% over the next three months.” Story at…
A stock-market sell signal has been triggered at Bank of America. Here’s what happens next.
 
EXISITNG HOME SAES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales increased by 0.5% in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.” Report at… 
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-5-increase-in-november
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6835.
-VIX declined about 12% to 14.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The reversal higher in the daily indicators on Thursday is the important signal at this point; not the 10-day that is still heading down.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.