Monday Night Update Declines, but Still Bullish

I updated some of the data I missed earlier and found that daily indicators did not improve Monday. Instead:

- At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish.

- The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.

- The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

 

I remain bullish overall.

ISM Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
IT DIDN’T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY – MARK ZANDI, MOODY’S ANALYTICS ECONOMIST (Fortune)
“The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index was up 3% in September from a year ago, accelerating from an annual rate of 2.3% in April.

Before April, inflation was following a downward trajectory that was on track to slowing back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“But higher tariffs, highly restrictive immigration policy, and de-globalization more broadly have upended that outlook, and inflation appears likely to remain stubbornly high for the foreseeable future” – Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics. Story at… 
https://fortune.com/2025/11/23/affordability-crisis-inflation-outlook-trump-tariffs-immigration-crackdown-prices/
My cmt: Trump started tariffs in April.
 
TIME TO BUY NVIDIA (Motley Fool)
“Nvidia stock trades for 24 times next year's earnings, which is cheaper than its big tech peers like Microsoft and Apple, which trade for a respective 25 and 30 times next-year's earnings.” Analysis at…
Should You Buy Nvidia Stock After It Notched 30% Gains in 2025? Wall Street Is Providing a Nearly Unanimous Answer.
My cmt: The PE for the S&P 500 is about 24 on next year’s earnings. Could be time to add Nvidia if you don’t own it.
 
2^nd PRICIEST MARKET IN 155 YEARS (Motley Fool)
“As of the closing bell on Nov. 26, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E was 40.20, which is a stone's throw from the late October peak of 41.20 for the current bull market. This is only the third time since 1871 that we've observed the Shiller P/E crest 40 -- it peaked at 44.19 in December 1999 and topped out a few hundredths above 40 just prior to the 2022 bear market taking shape -- and the sixth time in almost 155 years that it's surpassed 30 during a continuous bull market. This is where historical precedent comes into play. Following the previous five instances where the Shiller P/E topped 30, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and/or Dow Jones Industrial Average all declined by 20% to 89%.” Story at… 
Wall Street Is Set to Enter 2026 With the 2nd Priciest Stock Market in 155 Years -- and History Offers a Dire Warning for Investors
 
S&P GLOBAL US MANUFACTURING PMI (JP Morgan)
“Operating conditions in the US manufacturing sector improved for a fourth successive month in November. A solid rise in production and a further increase in employment was reported as confidence in the outlook strengthened… Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “Although the headline PMI signalled a further expansion of factory activity in November, the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface. The main impetus came from a strong rise in factory production, but growth in new order inflows slowed sharply, hinting at a marked weakening of demand growth.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion…Spence continues, “In November, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with pullbacks in supplier deliveries, new orders and employment leading to the 0.5-percentage point decrease of the Manufacturing PMI®.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/november/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6813.
-VIX rose about 5% to 17.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.088% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. See note above on Nvidia. It is down about 10% from its high. If it continues to fall I may add more.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Indicators are confirming our belief that the bottom is in for the recent market weakness.
 
I added to stocks Monday very late in the day. (I didn't have time to post.) We saw some profit taking Monday. Will it continue? If it does, I may add more to stocks.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.7% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish; I am now fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.