The
S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 1253 on Friday and the VIX was down 1.1%...a
good sign, although VIX is still stubbornly above 30.
The
S&P 500 remains in a Secular Bear market until it takes out the old highs
around 1550. I don’t think we’ll get
that far, but who knows? This bear
market that began in March of 2000 is likely to last 20-years.
As
I noted in Thursday’s blog, a 29% climb from the bottom is the lowest rise in
past history after a cyclical bottom (at least when records were available),
and that would take the S&P 500 to around 1420. That seems doable, assuming we don’t get
overtaken by bad news somewhere down the road. In the near term, we tested the 1100 area just
a few weeks ago and the S&P 500 is unlikely to go there again anytime soon,
but of course, there are no absolutes in this game. My guess is that we’ll see a bounce if we get
down as far as 1225 this week and we’ll probably bounce sooner.
The
NTSM analysis remains BUY as of the close on Friday.
I bought back into the stock market at
S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio
(100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the
link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 75% long in the trading portfolio.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance
for risk. Bad news in Europe could send
the markets down in a hurry.
