The
S&P 500 was up 2% Friday to 1264. VIX (S&P) dropped 8%.
The Telegraph (London) Friday, 11/11/11 -
“The OECD's
index of leading indicators for China, India, Brazil, Canada, Britain and the Eurozone
have all tipped below the warning line of 100, with the pace of the decline in
Europe exceeding the onset of the Great Contraction in early 2008.
Professor Simon
Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF, rattled nerves earlier this week
by warning the world is "looking straight into the face of a great
depression".
Full article at
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8882524/New-recession-threatens-the-globe-as-debt-crisis-grows.html
I’m sure we’ll
be hearing more than we would ever want to hear about this in the future.
For now, I’ll
be on alert and ready to bail out of the stock market again if necessary.
Keep in mind that we are in a Secular (long-term) Bear
Market that started with the dot-com bubble that popped in March of 2000. I expect this bear market to last 20-years so
it would be natural for us to experience more than one recession during the
bear market. We can’t know when the
market may start to further discount prices in advance of a recession. As Yogi didn’t say, “It’s hard to make
predictions, especially about the future.”
(Markus Ronner 1918)
For now, US profits have been OK and the NTSM market
analysis is signaling HOLD.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 75% long in the trading portfolio.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
