I
may not post over the weekend since things
will be busy with Holiday family visitors.
The
S&P 500 was down 2.2% to 1162 Wednesday and the VIX rose to 34 up 6%.
A
German Bond auction went poorly with fewer buyers than expected and yields
rose. Germany is the safe haven economy
and the strongest of the Euro zone countries…supposedly. So this development is not good news. In fact, I think it is VERY bad news.
Sentiment
is oddly high considering that the S&P is falling fast. The 5-day sentiment indicator is 59%-bulls as
of yesterday’s close.
The
VIX indicator is stuck in a relatively high range and isn’t generating a sell
signal that would get me out of this mess.
I’ll be taking a look at the indicator to adjust it for specialized
conditions. It is going to take some
work and then back testing so I don’t expect it to help make a decision in this
downturn.
Volume
fell again today and was about 80% of the 20-dMA of volume on the NYSE
(pre-Holiday). At this point that
doesn’t mean much since we are on the way to a re-test of the 1099 closing low
we had on 3 October.
I
considered selling today, but it was late and the web site guidance was
confusing. It looked like a sell request
wouldn’t be processed until Friday night because of the Holiday. If that was the case, why not wait and decide
on Friday?
As
of today the NTSM system is up 3.5% on the year. The S&P 500 is down 8%
NTMS
is HOLD.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio. Since
the trading portfolio is in the QQQ this time, I’ll sell it when we get a buy
indication and buy a 2xETF. That way I
can take a tax loss and with a 2x fund be better off as the market recovers.
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING!
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING!
