Tuesday,
the S&P 500 was up ½% to 1258.
Here’s
an interesting chart presented by Business Insider in a long presentation
regarding the world’s economy. Bottom
line, the world economy is shaky and leaning toward recession. (I’ll present more charts later in the week.)
Chart
originally from Street Alive.com
The
chart states that more than 25% of personal income is made up of Government
support. That is another way of saying
that the Government is now more than 25% of GDP and we have reported that
several times here. When Bill Clinton balanced
the budget the Government was only 17% of GDP.
The
importance to the economy is that as Government reduces spending, we may slip
into recession. The good news, so to
speak, is that the experts don’t expect anything as deep as the last one. Frankly, the experts have little clue and
neither do I; there is no point in guessing.
I’d prefer to follow the NTSM analysis.
As
of today, Tuesday, the S&P 500 is exactly flat on the year; NTSM is up 12%
(excluding the trading portfolio).
The
NTSM analysis remains HOLD today.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I am 80% long in the trading portfolio – up slightly because I bought some on the dip 2-days ago.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks. Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance
for risk.
