Sunday, November 27, 2011

Futures Up over 2% - Sunday night

Officially the NTSM computer system is a HOLD as of Fridays’ close.

Futures are up over 2% as of 8:45pm Friday night, so the options market is betting on a good day tomorrow.  I would expect a strong day Monday based on the good reports from retail sales on Black Friday.   

The market experienced a big downturn reversal that started 28 October after the bottom on 3 October.  I have mentioned before that a weakness of NTSM is when the market experiences a quick change in direction.  I would say that the downturn after a major bottom a month earlier qualifies as a quick turnaround so the NTMS analysis has not given us a sell signal that might have otherwise occurred.   That still may turn out to be the best choice, though.  As always, we’ll have to wait and see.

NTMS is HOLD.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.