Wednesday, November 30, 2011

OMG! COAC! (Correction Over, All Clear)

The S&P 500 was up 4.3% today to 1245 on nearly twice its average monthly volume.  VIX fell over 9%.  A beautiful sight, we’re happy tonight, walking in a winter wonderland…

I almost posted about this last night.  The correction that we were in lasted 17-1/2 weeks.  The last significant correction we had ended in August of 2010 and it lasted…17-1/2 weeks.  Today’s rally started Monday as a technical response to the final low (see chart below) on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after.

We set sail for huge gains today when the Fed announced that the World’s Central Banks got together and agreed to make low interest loans to European Banks.  The last time the Central Banks got together was in 2008; the market was up 6% that day…it crashed later in the year and into 2009.  Do we have a crash coming?  Probably, but I sure don’t know when.

NTMS is BUY today; no surprise there. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.