Monday
was another relatively low-volume day on the NYSE, but then, my volume analysis
has proved to be worthless recently, proving once again that is possible to
keep going down on low volume.
It
will be a while before we find out if the NTSM analysis is right or wrong. I
developed this computer model was to avoid losses greater than 10%. If the system is set to respond to every
little downturn, I’d be day-trading the retirement portfolio and that is not
the goal here; however, I will be looking at the NTSM VIX indicator to see if
there are ways to improve the system.
In
the mean time, VIX is still not rising fast enough to issue a sell signal. VIX needs to get up around 38 to generate a
sell signal.
Many
reported that the losses today were the result of the Failed Super Committee
negotiations. That’s an odd conclusion;
the Super Committee had not met as a group since 1 November so there was very
little hope that a group of intractable ideologues, appointed by other intractable
ideologues, would succeed.
The
good news? The Bush tax cuts expire in
2-years and there will be 100-Billion in cuts each year for the next 10-years as a result of the previously passed
legislation so the deficit will improve in the future unless our incompetent
Politicians backtrack again.
NTSM
was HOLD Monday.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio. I
am over-committed (maybe I should be committed) considering that bad news keeps
coming.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
