US SEES
BIGGEST DROP IN EXPORTS IN NEARLY FOUR YEARS (CNBC)
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap increased 4.9 percent to $42.2 billion even as imports declined to the lowest level in 1-1/2 years. September's trade gap was revised to $40.3 billion from the previously reported $41.6 billion... Economists polled by Reuters had expected the trade deficit to rise to $42.6 billion in October. Full story at...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100300319
SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT: TENTH LOWEST (Dec 11, 2012 Doug Short)
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today (see report). The December update for November came in at 87.5. This is the tenth lowest reading in history of this series. From dshort.com at...
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap increased 4.9 percent to $42.2 billion even as imports declined to the lowest level in 1-1/2 years. September's trade gap was revised to $40.3 billion from the previously reported $41.6 billion... Economists polled by Reuters had expected the trade deficit to rise to $42.6 billion in October. Full story at...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100300319
SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT: TENTH LOWEST (Dec 11, 2012 Doug Short)
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today (see report). The December update for November came in at 87.5. This is the tenth lowest reading in history of this series. From dshort.com at...
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/
NTSM RECESSION INDICATOR remains
leaning toward recession.
CHART TRENDS
The 50-dMA was actually
1417 Monday (I should have researched the number rather than looking at the
chart), so Monday’s close was higher than the 50-dMA and Tuesday the market
cheered Monday's higher close. There
may have been some short covering too.
MARKET RECAP
Tuesday
the S&P 500 was up about 0.65% to 1428 (rounded). VIX fell about 3% to 15.57.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained HOLD Tuesday. All NTSM indicators are neutral, but are now
leaning toward a buy. My guess is that tomorrow will be a down day and the S&P may have seen a short term top after what was a statistically-significant day today (per NTSM stats). Big days are often followed by moves in the other direction in the short term.
Tuesday, longer term trends in market internals
were mostly flat to slightly up – not really strong signals. The market has not been showing much
direction for some time.
I am still holding short positions – never dump
a short position on a big up-day – so I’ll continue watching for a better time
to get rid of my shorts. The market sold
off after the last Fed meeting…we’ll see.
I don’t want to remain short over the Holidays unless I have a clearer
view of the market direction. Right now,
it all seems clear as mud. We still may re-test
the 1353 low.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I
moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500. Because of the extreme negativity I have
noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15%
invested in stocks and I am still holding short positions.
