GDP Up for the 3rd Quarter

US ECONOMY GREW BY 3.1%  (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter as exports and government spending provided a lift…With imports falling for the first time since the second quarter of 2009, that narrowed the trade deficit. Trade contributed 0.38 percentage point to GDP growth. The drop in imports is a sign of weak domestic demand…
…Government spending …boosted by a rebound in state and local government outlays…added three quarters of a percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter…(G)rowth in consumer spending...reflected higher health care costs…
…Business inventories were trimmed to $60.3 billion from $61.3 billion. Restocking by businesses contributed 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth.”  Full story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100330697

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (LEI) DECLINES

“The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in November…bringing its six-month growth rate to zero,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board….Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that remains weak in the face of strong domestic and international headwinds…”  Press release at…
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

CMT: The LEI numbers are not good news since previously, the LEI numbers had been up 0.3% and 0.4% in September and October respectively.  The data was released this morning. 

AMERICANS SEEKING UNEMPLYMENT AID RISES BY 17,000 (Washington) – “The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week by 17,000, reversing four weeks of declines. But the number of people seeking aid is consistent with a job market that continues to grow modestly.” Full story at…
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20121220_ap_americansseekingunemploymentaidrisesby17000.html#ixzz2Fce9H0XL
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MARKET RECAP

Thursday the S&P 500 was up 0.5% to 1444 (rounded).  VIX was up 2% to 17.70.  (The options boys seem to be getting nervous.)

NTSM

Thursday the NTSM analysis remains HOLD. 

As of yesterday’s close the NTSM Sentiment indicator is reaching extreme levels since it has climbed to 65%.  It is the only negative indicator.  While the VIX indicator appears to be waking up, it remains neutral.   

MY INVESTED POSITION

Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500.  Because of the negativity I have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15% invested in stocks.  NTSM analysis now indicates BUY, as of 18 December, but my tentative plan is to buy back into the stock market late in the month.

I don’t like the rise in sentiment and the low volume Holiday trading could be exaggerated either way, so I’ll remain on the sidelines for a while longer.