Employers added 146,000 jobs in November, vs. 138,000 in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9% in October… ‘It's a treading-water jobs report,’ says Greg McBride, senior analyst for Bankrate.com. ‘The unemployment rate went down, but not for the right reasons.’ The main reason the unemployment rate fell, McBride says, is because fewer people were in the labor pool.” Full story at… http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/12/07/nov-jobs-investors-analysis/1751735/
The Government Bureau of
Labor Statistics stated, “Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not
substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for
November.” If that is so, and the reason
for the drop in unemployment rate is more job search “drop outs” one must be
somewhat concerned about the spike in unemployment claims.
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Chart from Doug Short at dshort.com…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php
ECRI WEEKLEY UPDATE: MORE
RECESSION FLAG WAVING
(from dshort.com, Advisor
Perspectives)“Today ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan appeared on CNBC and repeated the gist of his November 29th video rounds, in which he focused on his company's version of the Big Four economic indicators I've been tracking for the past several months. (Not surprisingly, ECRI continued their ‘we-are-already-in-recession’ call.”)
Here’s Doug Short’s view…
“I believe the US economy is walking a tightrope. The
average of the Big Four indicators has been wavering around a flat-line for the
past several months...However, a post-Sandy
rebound, satisfactory holiday sales and an intelligent outcome to Fiscal Cliff
negotiations could easily put the economy into indisputable expansion mode. And
today's growth in Nonfarm Employment, despite Sandy, was encouraging.” Analysis, charts, and discussion a…http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/
THE FISCAL GENTLE HILL
I’m still not convinced
the market trouble we are experiencing is all Fiscal Cliff related. Really, there will be no difference if the
“cliff” is resolved on 17 December or 17 January. The Congress will back-date any “deal” if it
is late. It seems impossible that there
would be no deal at all. There has been
some talk that the Republicans may wait for the taxes to go up as the Bush tax
cuts expire (after 1 January) and then agree to a deal that reduces taxes. That way they will not have agreed to a tax
increase.
CHART TRENDS (and the
Kitty’s Tale)
As I look at chart trend
lines, I see that the upper trend line is now well above the cat’s tale in the
chart I posted a few days ago
(http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2012/11/chart-patterns-predict-stock-market.html), so on that measure, the downtrend has been
broken and I am improperly holding a short position. If the market breaks above the 1420 area,
I’ll have to sell or sweat more by continuing to hold. I’m not sure I have the nerve.
I am not confident about
the market so I have no problem staying out until the NTSM system gives a buy
signal. So far, all I have is lots of
noise.
MARKET RECAP
Friday
the S&P 500 was up about 0.29%, to 1418 (rounded). VIX fell about 4% to 15.90.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained HOLD Friday.
I noted yesterday that the NTSM fear of
recession indicator is falling (that’s bad).
It is a long term indicator that compares cyclical stocks tot eh S&P
500: it is not likely to turn-around quickly.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I moved
out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500. Because of the extreme negativity I have
noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15%
invested in stocks and I am still holding short positions.
