Plenty of Manufacturing Jobs, but Too Few Applicants (CNBC – 28 Dec 2012)
“Bill Black…the executive vice president of Aphelion Precision Technologies has been unable to fill 7 to10 job openings…’I sometimes wake up in the morning and I'm thinking, maybe people just don't want to go to work," said Black. "Maybe it's easier to stay at home and not work. I don't know.’…”
“At Metal Technologies in
Bloomfield, Indiana these are boom times. In the last three years business has
doubled for the auto parts supplier …
Still, the company with
128 employees has 5 to 7 job openings it can't fill. ‘We get really frustrated
when we have a job and we can't get anyone to work it,’ said Randy Lovelace a
production manager at Metal Technologies.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100289795
Here’s a
presentation by the Secretary of Public Welfare for Pennsylvania. He clearly demonstrates problems and
solutions in the welfare system.
WELFARE’S FAILURE AND THE
SOLUTION - Presentation by Gary D. Alexander
Secretary of Public Welfare
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania“The U.S. welfare system would be an unlikely model for anyone designing a welfare system from scratch. The dozens of programs that make up the ‘system’ have different (sometimes competing) goals, inconsistent rules, and over-lapping groups of beneficiaries.”
The
single mom is better off earning gross income of $29,000 (and collecting
welfare to total $57,327 in net income & benefits) than to earn gross
income of $69,000 (that provides after-tax, net income & benefits of $57,045).
http://www.aei.org/files/2012/07/11/-alexander-presentation_10063532278.pdf
When I first saw a reference to the above
story about how it’s better to collect welfare than work, I thought it was by
some conservative zealot, but instead, it is a well thought out and legitimate presentation.
My wife and I had related experiences. While volunteering with the homeless at
church, I met a very attractive young woman in her late teens or early
twenties. In casual conversation she
seemed intelligent and hardly a “street-person.” One of my fellow volunteers offered her a job
on the spot at his business. She turned
him down – she said, “I don’t need to work.
I get everything I need for free.” {A short term view of life – not recommended
for anyone.}
My wife’s story is more personal and tragic. My wife is a teacher and she has a student
who is a talented kid with a lot of potential.
Her father wouldn’t let her work because he would lose benefits if she
had a job. Her father passed away recently
forcing the child to move back in with her mother (her father left the mother
years ago and got custody of the children). Now, her drug-addict, alcoholic mother won’t
let her work because mom would lose benefits if the child worked. My wife has been counseling her that she must
work (if not now – as soon as she turns 18) to break the cycle of poverty that
she has known all her life.
NAJARIAN COMPLETELY OUT OF EVERYTHING (CNBC)
(an update) “…what would make him jump back in…”“…Najarian said that worries in the first few weeks of January about extension of the federal debt ceiling would push the stock market lower...I would like to see that same sort of panic that lifts us into the mid-20s for the VIX. I don't want to see that, folks," he said. "I'll get back in because I anticipate that panic." Full story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100343637
MARKET RECAP
Monday
the S&P 500 was up 1.7% to 1426 (rounded).
VIX was DOWN almost 21% to 18.02 in a huge turn-around.
A hint of Cliff resolution
and all is well. As of this morning the
Senate was passing a bill to send to the House.
I thought the Constitution required all Appropriations bills to be
originated in the House. Well, they are
Politicians – why follow the Constitution?
NYSE Volume on Monday was
above normal, non-Holiday volume and that’s really big on a Holiday “tween” day. I can’t really say what it means. Buying ahead of cliff-resolution? End of year
window dressing? Blow off top?
MIXED MESSAGES
Market internals are oddly
flat - neutral.
Investors are snapping up
cyclical stocks much faster than the S&P 500 so they don’t think there is a
recession coming - bullish.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched back to HOLD Monday
as VIX crashed back to the 18 region - bullish.
Bullish sentiment now is up to 70%-Bulls over
a 5-day moving average and on Friday, fully 78% of all bets placed were to the bull
side in the Guggenheim funds that I track. That sort of action is consistent with a Top - very bearish.
I am going to keep following my numbers. In spite of the coming resolution of the
cliff, my “numbers” aren’t all that bullish.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I
moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500. Because of the negativity I have noted from
Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15% invested in
stocks. 
