Thursday, December 27, 2012

Markets in Wait Mode

JAPAN – MAD, MAD, WORLD (from Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis)
“The Keynesian and Monetarist clowns in Japan are going all out in Japan with pledges to ignore debt caps and implement "bold monetary policy"…Japan's crisis is not deflation as the economic illiterates suggest. Rather, Japan's problem is a debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%, caused by economic illiterates attempting to defeat deflation….It's a mad, mad world with monetarist fools in complete control of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the ECB.”
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#KCyC7dCluEL71g48.99

The WSJ reported that Japan is concerned that they must weaken their currency to make their trade position better vs. the US and others.  Let the monetary wars begin!

The next clip is a little extreme; the scary part is that it is from a Canadian Member of Parliament – not an American wacko.

A CANADIAN SUMMARIZES AMERICA’S COLLAPSE: “EVERYONE TAKES, NOBODY MAKES, MONEY IS FREE, AND MONEY IS WORTHLESS” - Canadian MP Pierre Poilievre (ZeroHedge)
"…through debt interest alone, soon the US taxpayer will be funding 100% of the Chinese Military complex." – ZeroHedge at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-26/canadian-summarizes-americas-collapse-everyone-takes-nobody-makes-money-free-and-mon

US TO HIT THE 16.4 TRILLION DEBT LIMIT ON NEW YEAR’S EVE – GEITHNER (The Hill)
“The United States will reach its $16.4 trillion borrowing limit on Dec. 31 and undertake “extraordinary measures” to avoid default, the Treasury Department informed congressional leaders in a letter on Wednesday.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/274591-us-to-hit-164t-debt-limit-on-dec-31

Great!!! So…if we get past the Fiscal Cliff, prepare for a couple more months of Political and Financial drama courtesy of the people we elected to run the country - coming to a financial TV network near you, “Attack of the Giant debt Limit”.    

MARKET RECAP
Thursday the S&P 500 was down 0.1% to 1418 (rounded).  VIX was down about 1% to 19.31.

Markets had been down about 1/2% earlier in the day, but reports that the House would be in session on Sunday fueled a rally on the hope that the Fiscal Cliff might be avoided.  It will be avoided – but I think they will simply buy more time by delaying the Cliff so they can continue negotiations.  We’ll see…

NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained HOLD Thursday.  Sentiment remains the only negative indicator.

I had to all the way back to August of 2009 to find a more bullish reading than the value of 68%-bulls my sentiment indicator hit today.  At that time, the market was coming off its 2009 bottom and the correct call was to be long.  An overly bullish reading is not always wrong, nor does it always suggest market declines, however; since we now are closer to a top than a bottom, I think the current overly Bullish reading is NOT GOOD.

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the SELL signal, 7 November 2012, I moved out of the stock market at 1377 on the S&P 500.  Because of the negativity I have noted from Hussman and others, I am currently invested in a range of near 15% invested in stocks.