Durable Goods ... Consumer Confidence ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
DURABLE GOODS (RTT News)
“A report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday unexpectedly showed a steep drop by new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of December amid a nosedive by orders for transportation equipment. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by 2.2 percent in December after tumbling by a revised 2.0 percent in November.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3506528/u-s-durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-plunge-2-2-in-december.aspx
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (AP News)
“U.S. consumer confidence dipped for the second consecutive month in January, a business research group said Tuesday. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index retreated this month to 104.1, from 109.5 in December.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-conference-board-spending-economy-31aab08b4281d3d23961c5c25fef6cca
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6068.
-VIX declined about 8% to 16.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged (compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.534%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
 
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what develops... 
...Down 17% yesterday; up 9% today.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Overall, the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators is a very bullish +16. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign.
 
Improving indicators is a good sign.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.