Friday, January 17, 2025

Housing ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
The NYSE is closed for MLK Day on Monday.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.050 million units last month, the highest level since February 2024... Permits for future construction of single-family housing increased 1.6% to a rate of 992,000 units in December.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-134252740.html
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance)
“US industrial production rose in December by more than forecast, helped by a pickup in factory output that indicates manufacturing is stabilizing after two years of weakness... The 0.9% increase in production at factories, mines and utilities was the largest since February and followed an upwardly revised 0.2% advance a month earlier,” Story at... 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-output-tops-forecasts-144523559.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5997.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.623%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of +14 is Bullish. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign. Man, this market will go up for ever...
“One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?" Ok. Maybe not forever, but for now, markets and indicators look great.
 
The S&P 500 climbed well above its 50-dMA clearing one more worry for traders.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. “Looking good, Billy Ray!  Feeling good, Louis!”
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.