“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in December, 0.2 percentage point higher than the November reading and in line with the Dow Jones estimate.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/31/pce-inflation-december-2024-.html
My cmt: Yesterday’s PCE was a preliminary number.
“Personal income increased by 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November and a 0.7% gain in October, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The gains in personal income were largely driven by higher wages and salaries.” Story at...
https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/personal-income-rises-0-4-in-december/
“...the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has posted a new figure, reflecting the current health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. The actual number for the PMI has come in at 39.5. This figure, although showing an improvement, falls short of the forecasted number of 40.3.” Story at...
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-shows-slight-recovery-still-below-forecast-93CH-3843019
“The White House said Friday that President Donald Trump would impose a 25% tariff on goods coming to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on those from China on Saturday, a move that could drive up prices for products coming into the U.S. from those countries... Trump said Friday that there was nothing that the three countries could do to avoid the tariffs, which he said were in response to the import of fentanyl into the U.S. and because the U.S. has a trade deficit with the three countries.” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-impose-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-saturday-white-house-says-rcna190221
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 6041.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.543%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
Today’s market action can be summed up in one word – Tariffs. Markets looked good today, at least until the reports that Trump would place tariffs on major US trading partners (see story above). The S&P 500 then fell about 1% as the day progressed. I ran some preliminary numbers before the selloff and my indicators were looking good, but they fell sharply, too, as the markets declined.
I am neutral – we need more information so we’ll see Monday.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
