Factory Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
"Donald, this is not the Soviet Union. You can’t
change the truth and you cannot silence us. Remember all your lies about the
voting machines, the election workers, your countless allegations of fraud that
never happened? Many of your lawyers have been sanctioned, disciplined or
disbarred, the courts ruled against you, and dozens of your own White House,
administration, and campaign aides testified against you. Remember how you sent
a mob to our Capitol and then watched the violence on television and refused
for hours to instruct the mob to leave? Remember how your former Vice President
prevented you from overturning our Republic? We remember." – Liz Cheney.
“...[Democrats] often say, when they lose elections, ‘We
didn’t get our message out.’ Yes you did. They just didn’t like it. You got it
out loud and clear.’ People say she [VP Harris] only had a hundred days. It
didn’t matter. You get your message out in five. Other countries have elections
that take two weeks... ‘You had too much time... ‘You lost a crazy contest to
an actual crazy person. Congratulations.’” – Bill Maher
How is it possible to lose to Trump? Answer: Trump got
2-million more votes [about 3%] in 2024 than he got in 2020 when he lost to
Biden. The difference was that Harris
got 7-million fewer votes than Biden. In other words, 5-million Democrats and
Independents stayed home rather than vote for Harris or Trump. – NTSM. (I think
these are the final numbers.) I just laugh when I hear the Trumpers claim they
have a mandate due to their massive electoral college win. Trump only got a few
more votes than he got in 2020. He lucked out that the Dems ran such a weak
candidate.
HOW CHINESE HACKERS GRADUATED FROM CLUMSY CORPORATE
THIEVES TO MILITARY WEAPONS (WSJ)
“The message from President Biden’s national security
adviser was startling. Chinese
hackers had gained the ability to shut down dozens of U.S. ports, power grids and
other infrastructure targets at will, Jake Sullivan told telecommunications and
technology executives at a secret meeting at the White House in the fall of
2023... China’s hackers were once thought to be interested chiefly in business
secrets and huge sets of private consumer data. But the latest hacks make clear
they are now soldiers on the front lines of potential
geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and China, in which cyber warfare
tools are expected to be powerful weapons.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/tech/cybersecurity/typhoon-china-hackers-military-weapons-97d4ef95?mod=djem10point
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“Factory orders dropped 0.4% after an upwardly revised
0.5% gain in October... Factory production rebounded after
contracting for months...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-fall-november-153209796.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5975.
-VIX fell about 0.6% to 16.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.624%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs
and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) remained zero (equal Bull
indicators and Bear indicators). Yesterday was zero too in the final
analysis.
TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear indicator spread remained zero. The spread
is Neutral, but the improvement from -10 to zero Friday was very bullish. The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is
also bullish since it is now rising.
In another bullish sign, Monday, the Index closed 0.5%
above its 50-dMA.
I added Nvidia today. It has been showing increased
momentum recently. We’ll see...
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
