“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index rose just 0.2% on the month, less than the 0.4% increase in November and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.4%... Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI was flat compared with the forecast for a 0.3% rise.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/ppi-december-2024-.html
My cmt: This report wasn’t good – it was great!
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5843.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.784%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT
The S&P 500 finished higher, but not by a lot. Market Internals, however, were much improved. Advancing-issues were nearly 3x higher than decliners; advancing-volume was more than 2x higher than declining-volume and even new-high/new-low data was much improved with new-highs about equal to new-lows. Overall breadth improved as more issues were advancing. The McClellan Oscillator turned bullish. My MACD of breadth had already turned bullish.
The daily, bull-bear spread of -5 is Bearish to Neutral,
however, the indicator-spread jumped higher today from -16 yesterday. This type of improvement is usually
associated with a bottom. In this case, let’s just say it’s more evidence that
the market weakness is ending.
The Index again tested its 100-dMA today and closed above
it – good news.
CPI is due out tomorrow. That will be another test for
the markets, but I suspect the PPI is more important because it suggests lower
inflation in the future.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“The producer price index rose just 0.2% on the month, less than the 0.4% increase in November and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.4%... Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI was flat compared with the forecast for a 0.3% rise.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/ppi-december-2024-.html
My cmt: This report wasn’t good – it was great!
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5843.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.784%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
The S&P 500 finished higher, but not by a lot. Market Internals, however, were much improved. Advancing-issues were nearly 3x higher than decliners; advancing-volume was more than 2x higher than declining-volume and even new-high/new-low data was much improved with new-highs about equal to new-lows. Overall breadth improved as more issues were advancing. The McClellan Oscillator turned bullish. My MACD of breadth had already turned bullish.
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
