ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will be closed on Thursday, Jan. 9, for the National Day of Mourning for the39th U.S. President James (Jimmy) Carter. Any transaction requested on a holiday, weekend, or after the NYSE closes will be processed on the next business day.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
AMERICAS GREEN MOVEMENT HAS A CHINA PROBLEM (Washington Examiner)
“Every year, charities with leadership linked to the Chinese Communist Party pump millions of dollars into American environmentalist charities, and, in turn, United States nonprofit groups affiliated with the green movement send millions more overseas to aid either the Chinese government directly or organizations closely linked to it. Major American foundations, collectively controlling tens of billions of dollars' worth of assets, take it upon themselves annually to support the Chinese government’s environmental and diplomatic goals. Nonprofit organizations such as the Gates Foundation, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Packard Foundation, and the Hewlett Foundation provide both direct and indirect support to the Chinese state in achieving its climate agenda...
... Heritage Foundation analysts argue that China has “hijacked” the American environmental movement for its own benefit, as China has a significant economic interest in replacing fossil fuels with alternative forms of energy. China is the world’s largest producer of solar panels and has a massive and growing electric vehicle industry.
America’s green movement has a China problem
 
TRUMP’S PARDON PROMISE (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump can’t change what happened four years ago on Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an impossible effort to undo his 2020 election loss. Soon, though, Mr. Trump will get the power to extricate the riot’s participants from the legal consequences of their actions. How far will he go? “A vast majority should not be in jail,” he said recently...
...On Dec. 6 a prison sentence of 12 months was given to Philip Sean Grillo, 50, for a jury conviction of four misdemeanors... “I’m here to stop the steal,” he said. Later: “We f— did it, baby, you understand? We stormed the Capitol!”
 
Sentencing him was Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee. “Having read dozens of indictments related to January 6,” he wrote, “I can say confidently: nobody has been prosecuted for protected First Amendment activity. Nobody is being held hostage. Nobody has been made a prisoner of conscience. Every rioter is in the situation he or she is in because he or she broke the law, and for no other reason.”
 
As Mr. Grillo was preparing to be led off by U.S. Marshals, CNN reports he shouted a final word: ‘Trump’s gonna pardon me anyways.’” – WSJ Editorial Board. From...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-pardon-promise-for-jan-6-rioters-trespass-capitol-clemency-f2d77e26
My cmt: Per testimony of the January 6 Congressional Committee, there were phone calls between the Proud Boys and White House staff prior to the riots. The text of those calls is unknown. The fact that they took place at all is circumstantial evidence that the White House may have orchestrated some of the mayhem that took place on January 6^th. Mr. Grillo’s statement makes us wonder whether some promise of pardon may have been given as well.  
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI
“The actual figure for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1. This number surpassed the forecasted figure of 53.5, indicating a more robust expansion in the non-manufacturing sector than initially predicted.” Story at... 
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-beats-expectations-signaling-robust-expansion-in-nonmanufacturing-sector-93CH-3800800
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 5909.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.685%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

 
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear spread of -8 is Bearish, but the improvement from -10 to zero Friday was very bullish. 
 
I try not to react too much to short-term (especially daily) moves in the indicators. The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is still rising so that’s bullish; that’s the more important sign at this point.
 
There have been only 7 up-days in the last 20-days. That’s a bullish sign that sometimes indicates a reversal.
 
Wednesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. 
 
On a bearish note, Tuesday, the Index closed 0.7% below its 50-dMA. It was unable to stay above the 50-dMA for consecutive days so by that measure, the trend is still down.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.