Chicago PMI … Consumer Confidence … JOLTS … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.” Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/30/chicago-pmi-june-2026
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (AP News)
“The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose 0.6 point to 91.2 in June, a figure that is still below its year-ago reading of 95.2… The report suggests that consumer confidence is recovering only slowly from the hit caused by the Iran war.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/consumer-confidence-economy-inflation-da0a1dee651d3e36123e8e83622c4ac4
 
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Investing Live)
“Looking at the report, the May data shows a stable labor market, with job openings, hiring, quits, and layoffs all largely unchanged, suggesting labor demand remains steady but is not accelerating nor decelerating.” Story at… 
https://investinglive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-7594m-vs-7300m-estimate-20260630/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 7% to 16.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.455% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

Today’s chart looked good – almost straight up from left to right and closing near the high for the day. Indicators improved too.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.
 
So far, not much movement in the 10-day moving average of indicators, but there was a decent move in the daily numbers. They are still neutral, but we can be encouraged that they moved higher.
 
Tuesday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case lower. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.
 
The S&P 500 closed 1.6% above its 50-dMA.That’s a good sign.
 
BOTTOM LINE
It’s hard not to be bullish after the nice two-day bounce we’ve seen off the 50-dMA. Three is a charm, so they say. I’ll feel better if the rally continues.                                                                                
 ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

 The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.