“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“…the president blamed the pool’s woes on “vandals”, who he claimed had taken “some form of knife or blade” and delivered a 250ft gash into the pool’s facade. By Monday, when Trump was still posting about the site, this alleged damage had grown into a “300 foot long gash”.” Story at…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/22/what-happened-dc-reflecting-pool-vandalism-arrest-algae
This couldn’t be true, could it?
“Yes, the claim is true. In early May 2026, President Donald Trump's motorcade was driven through the drained and freshly painted Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The administration and several news outlets confirmed that the heavy SUVs drove directly across the "American flag blue" sealant so he could inspect the project.” See Snopes at…
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-motorcade-reflecting-pool/
My cmt: So, Trump vandalized the project. Unbelievable!
“Financial firms such as Oppenheimer (1), Citigroup (2) and Goldman Sachs (3) have been raising their S&P 500 value predictions for 2026. Now one firm's optimism has topped them all. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, announced his 2026 S&P 500 forecast on Sunday: 8,250.” Story at…
Ed Yardeni just hiked his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to the highest of any Wall Street forecaster. Why he says we're in the 'Roaring 2020s'
My cmt: That’s 12% higher than Wednesday’s close.
“Durable Goods Orders in the United States (US) declined by 4.5%, or $15.6 billion, in May to $332.1 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 8.5% increase recorded in April and came in line with the market expectation.” Story at…
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-decline-45-in-may-as-expected-202606251239
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.10 in May from +0.19 in April.”
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/25/cfnai-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-economic-growth-may-2026
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20 fell by 12,000 to 215,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. “ Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-6c38e6c91415403252f242c42cdfbc3e
“The findings buttress recent economic data showing that the war did little apparent damage to the U.S. economic outlook, with job growth accelerating in recent months and consumption relatively unscathed… The U.S. economy grew at about a 1.6% annual rate over the first three months of the year.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-shock-nicked-us-gdp-resilience-was-message-dallas-fed-research-finds-2026-06-23/
“The personal consumption expenditures index rose to 4.1% on a yearly basis, the highest reading since April 2023. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, so-called core PCE measured 3.4%, the highest reading since October 2023.” Story at…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/may-inflation-report-interest-rates-oil-rcna351636
My cmt: These numbers exceed Fed targets for its favorite inflation measures.
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7357.
-VIX rose about 1% to 18.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.396% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -5 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations turned higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.
I am neutral.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
