… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
IRAN AND TRUMP BLAME ISRAEL FIRST (WSJ-excerpt)
“Tehran claims the U.S. is obliged to stop Israel from bombing Hezbollah, even as Hezbollah continues to kill Israeli soldiers and fire rockets and drones at civilians in northern Israel. Fighting calmed down on Sunday as Israel asked its military to reduce combat operations. Iran insists the MOU requires that Mr. Trump treat Israel like an American proxy, though Israel is a sovereign democracy with a duty to its citizens to stop foreign bombardment.
Perhaps Iran got this idea from listening to Mr. Trump and his Vice President. “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long,” Mr. Trump said last week, while declaring that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has no f— judgment” in how he responds to Hezbollah’s attacks.
JD Vance was even more threatening. “The Israelis—just like everybody else—have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally good for them and good for the entire region,” he said on Thursday…
…Within hours of Mr. Vance’s blunt message to Israel on Thursday, Hezbollah killed four Israeli troops. This guaranteed a retaliation, which Tehran then took as a pretext to postpone talks and threaten the Strait…
…Mr. Trump came into office with a chance to restore American deterrence after the feckless Biden years. But he increasingly finds himself attacking allies while apologizing for adversaries.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-and-trump-blame-israel-first-a122a0d7
 
BUFFETT INDICATOR WARNS OF POSSIBLE TROUBLE (Motley Fool)
“During the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, Buffett predicted that stocks were overvalued and would soon plunge into a bear market.
Now nicknamed the Buffett indicator, the metric behind his prediction measures the ratio between the total value of U.S. stocks and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)… "If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you," Buffett explained in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine. "If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire." As of this writing, it sits at around 233%.” Commentary at… 
Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator just hit a dangerous record. Here's what history says happens next.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7473.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.503% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The S&P 500 is 2% above the 50-dMA and appears to be in the vicinity of, though higher than its lower trendline.
 
Good to see the 10-day spread improve. Now let’s see if we can see consecutive days with the spread rising. That would probably lead me to take a more positive view of the markets.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.