… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
KEEP CAMERAS OUT OF THE SUPREME COURT (WSJ)
“The Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously advanced legislation last week that would require TV cameras in Supreme Court proceedings. When the legislation comes to a full vote, Senators should preserve judicial independence and safeguard public trust by keeping cameras out. Senators know all too well the jackassery that TikTokification encourages in the legislative branch. They shouldn’t turn the Supreme Court into a sister circus.” - Ben Sasse, Columnist, Free Expression, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/ben-sasse
 
DEMOCRATS SAY NO TO THE MILITARY (WSJ)
“The Trump Administration is asking Congress to refill U.S. military missile stocks after the war in Iran. Yet Democrats are saying no way, and they sound like JD Vance opposing aid for Ukraine when Joe Biden was President. Their argument is no better than Sen. Vance’s.” … “Democrats will not support tens of billions of dollars for Trump’s aimless war,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democratic appropriator. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, eyes fixed on Tuesday’s progressive victories in New York primaries, added that “we should be lowering costs for the American people, not writing another blank check for Trump.” …Democrats can’t bring themselves to criticize Mr. Trump from the hawkish right, though it might help them win back voters who think the party is weak on national security. Apparently they’d rather settle for making the futile gesture of a nonbinding war powers resolution and winking at the Democratic Socialists of America.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-defense-funding-congress-pentagon-trump-administration-d86fc605?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.05% at 7354.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.376% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is also important.
 
Basic internals were good today. Advancing issues were nearly twice declining issues; up-volume was more than twice down-volume; and new-52-week highs were well ahead of new, 52-week lows. That would normally produce positive results for the Indices, but that wasn’t the case today. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all down.
 
Volume was very high today (Friday).  The FTSE Russell re-balanced their various Indices. Thus, all of the ETFs following the Russell Indices must adjust their portfolios.  Artificial high-volume days like today cause a lot of churn, but often don’t tell us much about what’s really going on. Since there was little change in indicators, that’s where I am today, still waiting for a definite break one way or the other.
 
The S&P 500 closed 0.1% below its 50-dMA. That isn’t much, but if it stays there on Monday that might suggest a trend-break down.
 
The McClellan Oscillator improved again reflecting the positive breadth I mentioned above.
 
I am still waiting to see if price action will follow the indicators higher.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.