Job Openings … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP CHURCHILL OR CHAMBERLAIN (WSJ)
“Donald Trump, the pre-eminent dealmaker, is out of his element (“Will Trump Bail Out Iran’s Regime?” Review & Outlook, May 26). For decades he has succeeded in the business world because, however brash and coercive his negotiations, he could always rely on the force of the law to uphold his legal contracts. With Iran, however, he is dealing with religious fanatics: They aren’t moved by economic factors, they can’t be bullied by overwhelming force, and there are no laws to enforce agreements.
Mr. Trump now has to decide if he will risk his long-term legacy for short-term electoral success. American voters may reward him for the immediate gratification of lower gas prices, but history will judge him harshly if he squanders this chance to eliminate the greatest threat we have faced since World War II.
President Trump is facing a critical moment in his administration—a Churchill-or-Chamberlain crossroads. Will his legacy be the successful defense of America—and indeed Western civilization—against Islamic jihad, or will his bold attacks against the Iranian regime be sacrificed to political expediency and be remembered as another disgraceful episode of appeasement?” - Stanley Spatz, Letter to Editor, WSJ at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-churchill-or-chamberlain-crossroads-0f0ad6ce
 
RECESSION? (MSN)
“…according to Moody's top economist Mark Zandi, who said Donald Trump has about a week to secure a peace deal before the effects of the war make it more likely that the economy will fall into a recession. According to reports on Monday, Iran has said that it will cease negotiations and block the Strait of Hormuz until key demands are met. That's bad news for Trump, who has teased a deal for weeks with nothing concrete to show for it. Oil spiked on Monday morning, with Brent and US crude prices rising by about 7%.” Story at…
Economist Mark Zandi says Trump has a week to strike Iran deal before US faces a 'real problem'
 
JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Job openings hit their highest level in nearly two years during April while hiring fell sharply, according to a government report Tuesday that showed rising demand but also slow hiring in the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month and the highest level since May 2024.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/02/job-openings-april-2026.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 7610.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.461% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
Deja-vu all over again:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +18 to +16 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Even More Overbought: 9 of the last 10-days have been up-days; while 15 of the last 20 have been up. Further, the last 9 days have all been higher than the day before. Those are lofty numbers that should bring a down day soon.  Looking at sentiment numbers, we see that retail-traders (mom and pop) continue betting more to the bear side now and the sentiment indicator switched from neutral to bullish. That sets the table for more gains, but we still expect a down-day or two in the near future.
 
The S&P 500 made another all-time high today, Tuesday. 143 issues on the NYSE made a new, 52-week high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still high enough so that we don’t have a bearish signal. Breadth remained positive. These stats show breadth is good enough that we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon.
 
Indicators look good. Bear signals are unremarkable, but we’re due for a down day and traders are still betting on a down-day. When it comes, the down-day might be a good time to add to stock holdings in the trading portfolio.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I expect a down day soon, probably tomorrow, Wednesday. (That’s what I said yesterday.)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.